Forex Spread Trading April 2009
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spread Betting, 24 Apr 2009
A quick look at the fixed odds markets. A No Touch bet on the euro/usd with a trigger at $1.28 for 7 days pays 8% ROI with BetOnMarkets.
Forex Spread Betting, 23 Apr 2009
This morning is eerily quiet following on from Captain Darling’s bombshell budget yesterday. After Sterling got a little bit of a kicking it has shrugged off the news of the biggest budget deficit of all time and bounced off the support levels.
This morning Cable is still attracting buyers as we sit at $1.4550 at the time of writing.
EUR/USD is back above $1.3000, currently at $1.3070 so making a bit of ground on sterling as well as GBP/EUR heads back towards €1.1100. Sterling’s little run of good form from the beginning of March seems to have stalled rather like the equity markets and resistance sits up at €1.1400.
Forex Spread Betting, 22 Apr 2009
Sterling is slipping in morning weakness as dealers worry that the Chancellors will say something truly awful and I would be surprised if there were much in the way of open positions from our clients as he gets to his feet this afternoon.
The ever increasing state liabilities are weighing heavily on future expectations and the current solution of Quantitative Easing is all very well from an academic viewpoint but if nobody else indulges in it (ie France, Germany, Spain etc) it will leave the poor old pound in a rather dodgy situation.
Forex Spread Betting, 21 Apr 2009
Sterling has now given up much of the rally versus the dollar built over the past few weeks. Yesterday saw the small short term up trend broken when we fell through $1.4600.
This morning’s action is not exactly encouraging either. Rumours that the Chancellor is going to forecast a 200bn deficit for this year have unnerved currency markets. However that is not the whole story. Gilts managed a spectacular move higher throughout the session as the next Treasury buying spree approaches.
The quantitative easing model causing the current dislocation in valuations on UK debt will, presumably, finish some time in the second half of 2009 at which point Gilt markets will probably fall massively but for the time being the investment banks are coining it in.
Sterling weakness over the last few days is worrying for many reasons, not least the impression it gives on the market’s confidence in this administration to deliver anything remotely useful for longer term solutions.
Currencies generally reflect buying power across the globe and occasionally over reach themselves as trends move too far in one direction or the other. While, on the face of it, the pounds recent demise (over the last year) looks to be precipitous it would be a brave finance director who did not cover against the weakness continuing.
Forex Spread Betting, 20 Apr 2009
The pound has taken the failure to hold above $1.5000 vs the dollar very badly and we are slipping even further in this morning’s session. Cable is now down at $1.4651 off 130 pips already
While the euro is not exactly surging either, the four day attempt for the GBP/EUR cross to get through €1.1375 has also given up with a vengeance. Slipping back to €1.1260 as I write.
On the plus side Sterling is still in a short term uptrend scenario and dealers are still picking up longs on these lower levels. €1.1250 seems to be an important support so Sterling buyers will probably be more in evidence at current prices than sellers but many eyes will be focussed on any potential break lower.
Price Update:
- GBP / USD closed last week up $0.014 at $1.480 (up 0.95%)
- USD / JPY closed last week down -¥1.0 at ¥99.0 (down -1%)
- EUR / USD closed last week down -$0.017 at $1.304 (down -1.29%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week down -£0.02 at £0.881 (down -2.22%)
Also see:
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"With FinancialSpreads.com you get all the normal
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Forex Spread Betting, 17 Apr 2009
Sterling has rejected the $1.4950 to $1.5000 level once again and this makes it the forth failure since the 16th Jan to trade and hold above the mark.
The overall momentum for the Pound does seem to have turned slightly favourable. However it should be recognised that the repeated inability to regain recently (last year) lost ground is not encouraging.
Fortunately for Sterling bulls the Euro also seems to be falling slightly out of favour against the Dollar (as mentioned many times over the last few weeks). The EUR/GBP recovery remains in place, although we seem to be pausing for breath just for the moment.
Forex Spread Betting, 16 Apr 2009
The Euro continues to look weak and our theory that the support at $1.3115 might come under pressure might be tried today. Yesterday’s low at $1.3145 ran into heavy buying but the bounce seems to have been half hearted.
The series of lower highs on each move up may be starting to weigh on longer term direction. Still the supports are still in place and sellers at the current level of $1.3165 are risking more to the immediate upside than to another failed attempt to the down.
Cable finally managed to push above $1.5000 and even closed higher than $1.4950 in quite volatile activity. Today the sellers seem to be out once again. It is painful to say, but if this is another failure at this level, the reaction could be quite violent.
The GBP/USD spreads price this morning is back at $1.4942-$1.4945 and this is perilously close to triggering a selloff. If we can close above $1.4950 again tonight it would give comfort to the bulls. Nevertheless but it must be admitted that the cross is sitting on a knife edge at the moment.
Forex Spread Betting, 15 Apr 2009
Currency markets reaffirmed the ranges yesterday. Cable was unable to break above $1.4950 yet again and beat a retreat back down to $1.4850.
The Euro failed to make headway above $1.3350, leaving no room for manoeuvre except to the down side.
We are now looking at two critical but slightly opposing levels. $1.3115 for the down side of the Euro / Dollar and $1.4950 for the upside of the Pound / Dollar.
With Sterling continuing to regain lost ground vs the euro with a very slow but determined move over the last month there is a possibility that both resistances will go at once but this would mean a sharp rally in the GBP/EUR from the current €1.1260-€1.1263. Watch this space.
Forex Spread Betting, 14 Apr 2009
Currency markets continue to trade in the same ranges although the pound is continuing to make a bit of a comeback.
Versus the dollar there is the obvious major barrier of $1.5000 to be defeated as the two attempts on the level since January have both been violently rejected at $1.4990 and $1.4960. The current price at $1.4883-$1.4886 up 40 pips this morning is encouraging but traders will no doubt be nervous the higher we get.
Whilst I would not recommend outright shorting of sterling at this point (as the mood has definitely turned slightly more Sterling favourable) I have to admit that it is also difficult to suggest buying just now as well. Longer term players will probably await confirmation of the renewed strength with a close at least above $1.4900 before venturing into the game.
Forex Spread Betting, 13 Apr 2009
Price Update:
- GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.015 at $1.466 (down -1.01%)
- USD / JPY closed last week up ¥0.3 at ¥100.0 (up 0.3%)
- EUR / USD closed last week down -$0.021 at $1.321 (down -1.56%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week down -£0.006 at £0.901 (down -0.66%)
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Trading April 2009' by DB, updated 24-Apr-09
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