Forex Spread Betting February 2009
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spread Betting, 13 Feb 2009
Did yesterday actually happen?
I only ask as virtually every major market, having tried valiantly to break out of the current trading ranges, is now pretty much where they closed on Wednesday evening. GBP/USD had a solid look at $1.4150 but has decided “nothing doing” and is back at $1.4450, 300 points higher.
The activity yesterday may be very significant indeed for future direction as a rejection of a solid breakout in so many markets could very well have shown that the supports built up over the past month are strong enough to defeat even a dramatic attack.
Forex Spread Betting, 12 Feb 2009
Unfortunately for the UK, the pound has been in the wars once again as the various major crosses suffer. After falling 3¢ on Tuesday and 2¢ yesterday we are another 2¢ (almost) down this morning.
The failure to rally above the previous recovery level ($1.5400) has weighed heavily on sentiment. There is some support at the $1.4200 level but it is weak and we are pressing on it as I write. For bulls it is probably better to keep your powder dry for a while just yet.
Forex Spread Betting, 11 Feb 2009
Sterling decided to have one of its worse days yesterday and the weakness is not over just yet. The GBP / USD spread is currently probing the lows of yesterday’s sessions at around $1.4470. There is minor support here and it must be emphasised that we are still 10¢ above the lows of just a few weeks ago.
We are now faced with the fear that the recent two week rally in the Pound has been a dead cat bounce and the crosses might start to probe the lows once again. While this is not a difficult scenario to foresee it must be also pointed out that the stresses and strains in the other economies are also starting to impact the attractions for their various currencies.
While S&P has downgraded some of the Euro States in recent months it is still a leap of faith to believe that the political resolve pushing the EC project will allow key member states such as Spain, Italy and (to a lesser extent) Greece, Ireland and Portugal to default on their debt.
The political pressure to engineer some form of currency devaluation may well win out over the ECB in the longer run. The same might be said for Japan where the strength of the Yen is causing chaos in the manufacturing sector. The US is just about to spend some mindboggling sums effectively devaluing existing Greenbacks.
Forex Spread Betting, 10 Feb 2009
Sterling is struggling to hold onto the gains of the last few days and the action overnight is disappointing. In the small hours the euro was heavily off and sterling was slipping but stable.
Since the opening of the European session the pound has fallen heavily and the Euro has recovered much of the falls. This has meant a swing from 120 pips up versus the Euro to the current 30 pips down £1.1423-£1.1427.
There is support at around the £1.1400 level but then not much until the low £1.13’s. Further weakness may bring out more selling rather than buying into a falling market and the extreme price movements for the pound in recent months do not add to confidence that stability is about to break out.
GBP/USD is back at the rather significant $1.48 level. The short term trend is definitely still in the pounds favour but it would not take a great deal to dent this confidence (especially given the falls of recent months).
Trend line support is at around $1.4680, and rising, which may well be a very important support level. We are seeing buy orders just above this level either to take profits on existing sell bets or to enter into new longs.
Forex Spread Betting, 9 Feb 2009
Sterling has given up a little of its rally this morning after very early action might have indicated further strength. Weak sterling shorts were probably wiped out on Thursday and Friday and a pause for breath might now be the on the cards. Cable has rallied over 12¢ in the last two weeks and we are now back in the trading range that operated from mid November to Mid January.
We have seen continued attempts to sell into the rising market as the analysts fell over themselves trying to write off the Pound. Two things should always be remembered about comment...mine included...first there is a good chance that if a Fund has made the comment then he is talking his ‘book’ and second if an Analyst is good he would be trading rather than commenting.
The Euro is probably having the oddest activity at the moment. Most commentators expected it to rally versus the dollar in line with the Yen but conversely it has got a bit stuck in the $1.2750 to $1.3300 range. The problem with this type of activity is that you get left with the feeling that ‘if it wont rally’ when things are in its favour then what will happen went events turn sour?
Price Update:
- GBP / USD closed last week up $0.031 at $1.473 (up 2.15%)
- USD / JPY closed last week up ¥1.8 at ¥91.6 (up 2%)
- EUR / USD closed last week up $0.003 at $1.285 (up 0.23%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week down -£0.017 at £0.872 (down -1.91%)
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Forex Spread Betting, 6 Feb 2009
Sterling is having a good run despite the rate cuts. At the time of writing Sterling is testing resistance against the Dollar at around $1.4750. A big spike higher this morning in early London trade has given the sterling bulls something to cheer about but the move could also be down to a degree of short covering. Against the Euro things are looking better for Sterling too, the EUR / GBP spread is currently sitting around £0.8670.
Forex Spread Betting, 5 Feb 2009
Cable (GBP/USD) had another failed attempt at the $1.4500 level yesterday but the Pound is definitely recovering from weakness rather more robustly than for some time.
For the fist time since last spring, a strong reversal of a small bull move was defeated (Monday’s drop has been reversed). While the pound does not seem to be able to hold above $1.4500 vs the dollar there may be the odd stirrings of a recovery.
Sterling / Yen has also managed to stagger through the steep medium term downward trend line and, at ¥129.07-¥129.15, there is a lot more room on the up side than the down. Almost incredibly the GBP/JPY cross could rally to over ¥190.00 and still be in a bear trend.
Forex Spread Betting, 4 Feb 2009
The currency markets are still trying to assess the chances for further weakness in the pound as we oscillate around well above the recent lows. While the UK economy is no doubt in a worse situation than many of it major competitors the dramatic falls in Sterling already in place might have factored this in. Targets for the bears are still considerably lower than current prices with $1.2500 mooted for the USD and under €1.0000 for the Euro.
For longer term players though the risk / reward is starting to tip in favour of the pound as repeated attempts to drive the various crosses lower are failing to make headway. As with the various indices repeated failure to break lower, there might be a build up of pressure for a more serious rally over the small recovery seem in the last few weeks.
Forex Spread Betting, 3 Feb 2009
On the FX markets the pound had a veritable roller coaster yesterday falling over 4¢ at one point and then rallying back up to finally close just a couple of cents off. The mid $1.42’s seem to have a strong attraction at the moment and, while yesterday was exceptional at least the rate of decline of the Pound seems to be slowing up a bit.
The dollar has been recovering some sort of stability for a while now and is back at cross rates versus the Euro that reflect a bit more normality around $1.2800.
The real movers over the last few years or so have been the Yen (up) and the Pound (down) all the other majors have been exciting but are now back to levels of 2005/2006 (approximately).
The industrial production news out of Japan was truly awful last week and one wonders how long the yen can continue at such a high value. Manufacturing exporting margins are tight at any time if your currency appreciates by 30% (over 50% in the case of the pound) it becomes almost impossible in the long term to operate profitably.
Forex Spread Betting, 2 Feb 2009
The strength in the pound last week has run into a serious brick wall this morning as well with the GBP / USD Cable rate dropping 250 points from the squeeze higher on Friday.
Sterling is not having the best morning of it and all attempts to bounce from the current slide seem to run into ever heavier selling. The big bounce on Friday now seems even more like a ‘weak bear’ squeeze. A good example was to be had with some of our clients who attempted to resist the move higher for much of Friday’s session only to close out at the worst levels of the evening.
Price Update:
- GBP / USD closed last week up $0.069 at $1.442 (up 5.03%)
- USD / JPY closed last week up ¥0.8 at ¥89.8 (up 0.9%)
- EUR / USD closed last week down -$0.012 at $1.282 (down -0.93%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week down -£0.047 at £0.889 (down -5.02%)
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Betting February 2009' by DB, updated 13-Feb-09
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