Forex Spread Betting August 2009
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spread Betting, 28 Aug 2009
As discussed yesterday, the sterling range at $1.62 to $1.66 eventually held the upper hand and after testing the markets below $1.62 the volume attraction of this range reasserted its pull.
Having hit $1.6155 yesterday, we are now at $1.6285. In truth the opening hours today have been quite constrained. With the revision to the Q2 GDP out at 09.30 this morning we might get a bit of a flurry but revisions to GDP are generally (and quite rightly in my opinion) seen as, very much, yesterday’s news. Having now said this, the market will probably go bananas at 09.31.
Forex Spread Betting, 27 Aug 2009
Forex markets continue to be Sterling unfriendly with the poor old pound dropping sharply against all comers. The $1.70 level versus the dollar is now a distant memory. While there is a nice support at around the current level of $1.6200, there does seem to be little expectation that this will hold for long.
Having said that, we are in the $1.62 to $1.66 range which has dominated for the last three months, albeit with the odd break out attempt. Until a close below $1.60 is confirmed, it would be difficult to justify getting short just at these levels.
Sterling Yen is also slipping fast and the charts are beginning to look nastily like a double top formation at $1.63. If this does indeed turn out to be the case there is a long way down to go.
Forex Spread Betting, 26 Aug 2009
On the economic data front for Europe, Germany’s IFO business climate figures have just been released and posted the fifth monthly rise in a row, beating expectations. It is also the highest number since October 2008, so not only do we have rising confidence in the US consumer, but we have rising confidence amongst the business sector of Europe’s largest economy.
This confidence compliments Germany’s GBP numbers released yesterday that posted a rise of 0.3% for Q2. Year on year Germany is still looking at a decline of -5.9%, but the quarterly rise has assisted in boosting strength for equities as well as the euro.
In the UK, where our GDP numbers are released on Friday, we are still lagging with a quarterly decline of -0.8%.
This explains sterling’s recent weakness against the euro. This morning we have hit an 11 week high for euro/sterling, just below £0.8800 at £0.8780. This has been fuelled by better figures from the eurozone in general and this weeks German GDP and IFO numbers have compounded the euro’s strength.
Overall, the economic data has been suggesting that the global economy is on the mend and all in all this has been negative for the dollar.
Forex Spread Betting, 25 Aug 2009
Currency markets are largely flat this morning although sterling is under some pressure.
Cable is back to $1.6365 and still yet to follow through and test the $1.7000 mark.
Further weakness in stocks could put more pressure on sterling, which has suffered poorly against the euro in particular over the past week. For euro/sterling £0.8500 has been penned in as the major support area and resistance is seen around £0.8800.
Forex Spread Betting, 24 Aug 2009
Sterling is drifting in early action as the dollar takes up a bit of slack from its slight weakness towards the end of last week.
Against the Euro the dollar has been drifting lower for some considerable time but the barrier from $1.4300 to $1.4500 is quite considerable.
A few weeks ago we had a solid battle to try to get above $1.4450 but to no avail. After four days of trying the first economic number to suggest US strength resulted in a swift 3¢ retracement.
Markets looked to be trying it once again on Friday but this morning the sellers are once more indicating the there is just not enough momentum, yet, to try for the higher reaches.
The current price at $1.4295 still favours the upside but the strength of the rally of the last seven months does seem to be petering out a bit.
Traders should watch the rising trend support, currently at $1.4125, as if this is defeated there is quite a bit of room to the downside. On the other side of the coin, a close above $1.4425 might be the trigger for the bulls to attempt to defeat the resistance and go for a return to the $1.4960 resistance from 2007/08.
Price update:
- GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.002 at $1.651 (down -0.13% week-on-week)
- USD / JPY closed last week up ¥0.1 at ¥94.6 (up 0.09% week-on-week)
- EUR / USD closed last week up $0.007 at $1.430 (up 0.5% week-on-week)
- EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.005 at £0.866 (up 0.62% week-on-week)
Also see:
Financial Spreads >>
"With FinancialSpreads.com you get all the normal
advantages of Spread Betting plus..." >> read
Financial Spreads review.
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Forex Spread Betting, 21 Aug 2009
Currency markets remain above and their main supports and resistances respectively.
The GBP/JPY cross, once again, bounced off the trend line support mentioned many times recently in early morning activity today with a low at around ¥153.60 bringing the short coverers in to pull us back up to ¥155.00 quite sharpish in reaction.
GBP/USD also renewed the resistance at the $1.6600 level mentioned in yesterday’s comment with a short shift up to this level yesterday morning followed by an immediate fall back to the mid $1.64’s although this was helped to some extent by the Treasury’s net tax receipts/expenditure number for July (terrible).
Looking over to the dealing room this morning I am half expecting to see a few tumbleweeds to blow through the room such is the lack of sound or activity. Punters/traders are waiting for evidence of a break out in one of the major arenas before getting too over come by all the excitement and this might lead to constrained markets for the time being.
Forex Spread Betting, 20 Aug 2009
For those of you reading these comments, the support levels mentioned yesterday in the FTSE 100 and Currencies and the fears over the oil inventory numbers were all borne out by events.
The most spectacular result was GBP/JPY which managed to drop several hundred points to within 1 pip of the ¥153.60 support mentioned. Sterling/Yen has now rebounded 250 pips back up to ¥156.10 in early action.
GBP/USD is once again approaching the $1.6600/$1.6650 resistance levels with cable now at $1.6570. We can expect some heavy selling at these levels as punters try their luck on a repeat performance of the last three or four days.
As mentioned in previous comments the only break above $1.6650 resulted in a swift hike up to $1.70 as shorts were squeezed out. However, after this, there was just as swift a return to the sub $1.66 level.
The rising trend line from March was broken on Monday which caused a big sell off. The Sterling/Dollar cross has subsequently tried, so far unsuccessfully, to regain the support. If we fail to close above $1.6600 soon the bears may once again come out to play.
Forex Spread Betting, 19 Aug 2009
The schizophrenia in the currency markets continues apace with Cable bouncing over 2¢ yesterday only to fall back over 1¢ in the early morning session today.
Punters took it on the chin trying to sell into the rally but their faith has been rewarded with the drop in early trading.
Recent history tells us that $1.6600 to $1.6650 has proved to be a difficult barrier to overcome with the one successful break immediately taking us up to the $1.7000 mark a couple of weeks ago. This is making the high $1.65’s a popular place for our spread betting clients to take out new Sterling shorts (with an obvious stop above $1.6650).
The GBP/JPY cross is becoming an increasingly popular market. The support at ¥153.35 which held for the low of the move on Monday and helped with the subsequent bounce, has now moved slightly higher to ¥153.60 as the upward trendline rises.
From the cross rising almost 400 pips yesterday from the lows of Monday we have now seen a retracement of 230 pips back to the current ¥155.00 and dealers are obviously looking for another possible test of the aforementioned support.
Forex Spread Betting, 18 Aug 2009
Currency markets are also taking back a slug of yesterday’s activity with the GBP/JPY having bounced neatly off the trend line support mentioned several times in the last few weeks.
Support was at ¥153.35 and the low yesterday at ¥153.45 gave shorts a nice opportunity to take profits and reverse into longs.
The rally in the pound was always looking a bit stretched up at $1.70 and ¥163. Nevertheless the move higher had finally managed to shake out all the weak shorts to give room for a move back down.
Sterling returns are starting to look not much better than elsewhere with the 2yr Gilt now yielding just 0.85%. The bond markets are starting to take the possibility of negligible inflation rather more seriously. If the BoE does maintain rates at the current level for some time the hunt for returns may cause one or two odd rallies/corrections in the medium term.
As mentioned last week volatility in many areas seems to back on the cards as trading ranges begin to increase once more.
Currency and commodity prices are winging about violently on a session by session basis and while yesterday’s moves were quite sizeable in the equity markets they were not particularly big even by pre-2008 measure.
Forex Spread Betting, 17 Aug 2009
With the currency markets also showing increasing signs of volatility all eyes are once again on the Pound. Versus the dollar there is some small support in the low $1.63’s but the significant event must be the break of the six month upward trendline in early activity this morning.
The support went at approximately $1.6435 and the reaction was pretty much immediate with longs liquidating positions taking the price down to the current $1.6340.
The nearish target for the bears is probably the $1.60 area but the failure of the support must be worrying for many. This may indicate a longer term reversal back into the $1.40’s.
The Sterling story depends to a large extent on the recovery scenario.
If world growth stalls the UK will suffer considerably more than most simply because of its huge dependence on the Public Sector. The huge reliance on the tax revenues of the dwindling private sector and to a great extent on the square mile means that controlling the deficit will become ever more important.
Unfortunately we have two political parties who seem to think that the problem will just go away if they talk about it for long enough. Nasty, unpopular, decisions will have to be taken. Sadly, with an election half way through next year, these decisions will be deferred until the situation is much more critical.
Price update:
- GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.015 at $1.653 (down -0.9% week-on-week)
- USD / JPY closed last week down -JPY 2.9 at JPY 94.5 (down -2.98% week-on-week)
- EUR / USD closed last week up $0.002 at $1.423 (up 0.14% week-on-week)
- EUR / GBP closed last week up 0.009 at 0.861 (up 1.06% week-on-week)
Also see:
Financial Spreads >>
"With FinancialSpreads.com you get all the normal
advantages of Spread Betting plus..." >> read
Financial Spreads review.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Betting August 2009' by DB, updated 28-Aug-09
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Forex Spread Trading June 2010, updated 18-Jun-10
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Forex Spread Betting June 2010, updated 04-Jun-10
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Forex Spread Betting May 2010, updated 07-May-10
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Forex Spread Betting April 2010, updated 09-Apr-10
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Forex Spread Betting March 2010, updated 12-Mar-10
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Forex Spread Trading February 2010, updated 26-Feb-10
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Forex Spread Betting February 2010, updated 12-Feb-10
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Forex Spread Trading January 2010, updated 29-Jan-10
FX market update: On the currency front, the Euro has been weakening again, finally dropping below $1.40 yesterday. The currency is...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2010.
Forex Spread Betting January 2010, updated 15-Jan-10
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Forex Spread Bets December 2009, updated 01-Jan-10
FX market update: Interesting movements in the Forex spreads markets are just about the only thing worth focussing on at the moment. Yesterday the Dollar waxed and waned, managing a...read article: Forex Spread Bets December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2009, updated 18-Dec-09
FX market update: The momentum against Cable was compounded by some negative UK retail sales which flew in the face of recent reports from retailers like...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2009.
Forex Spread Betting December 2009, updated 04-Dec-09
FX market update: The Euro managed to exactly match our commented range of $1.5140 to $1.5040/60 in yesterday's session. It traded at...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading November 2009, updated 20-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are mixed this morning but largely in favour of the Dollar. Cable is heading lower as once again it fails to test...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2009.
Forex Spread Betting November 2009, updated 06-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are turning a bit Dollar unfriendly once more with the Euro regaining the $1.4860 level. The Euro had been...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2009.
Forex Spread Trading October 2009, updated 23-Oct-09
FX market update: Trading continues to be very contained in the EUR/USD cross with the $1.49 level seeming to hold an irresistible attraction. Last night it seemed that...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2009.
Forex Spread Betting October 2009, updated 09-Oct-09
FX market update: Mervyn King muttered about a weak currency helping exporters but I have to say that this commentator is yet to see any evidence of...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2009.
Forex Spread Trading September 2009, updated 25-Sep-09
FX market update: The weakness of the Pound versus other majors has merely been reflected by the Dollars own lack of strength. Versus the Euro the cross seems unable to...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting September 2009, updated 11-Sep-09
FX market update: As mentioned many times over the last few months the Dollar continues to suffer from what looks like benign neglect from the...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting August 2009, updated 28-Aug-09
FX market update: The pound/dollar range at $1.62 to $1.66 eventually held the upper hand and after testing the markets below $1.62 the volume attraction of this range reasserted its pull. In truth the opening hours today have...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2009.
Forex Spread Trading August 2009, updated 14-Aug-09
FX market update: On the currency front the pound made a big rebound from the lows with the Yen (especially) falling back after a strong run. The sharp spike lower in GBP/JPY in a frantic...read article: Forex Spread Trading August 2009.
Forex Spread Trading July 2009, updated 31-Jul-09
FX market update: The equity market rally though took its toil as investors sold the dollar in favour of equities. Sterling did well out of...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2009.
Forex Spread Betting July 2009, updated 17-Jul-09
FX market update: The dollar is making a little ground back against sterling. Rather like the equity markets there is a lack of direction and a real tussle between the
...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2009.
Forex Spread Bets June 2009, updated 03-Jul-09
FX market update: Sterling is also managing to sit tight against some serious tests of support. Cable has drifted sideways through the short term upward trend line which is marginally worrying and this may give cause for a move back into the $1.58 to $1.60 region. However sometimes trend lines just lose their...read article: Forex Spread Bets June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading June 2009, updated 19-Jun-09
FX market update: Forex markets must have read my comment yesterday as the pound made an almost carbon copy move to Wednesday's price action. The total net effect over the last three days has been...read article: Forex Spread Trading June 2009.
Forex Spread Betting June 2009, updated 05-Jun-09
FX market update: Even though the GBP/USD spread betting market has fallen from a high of $1.6670 on Wednesday to the current $1.6050 there have been some big rallies amidst the 6 cent fall. Clients have been trying to buy into...read article: Forex Spread Betting June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading May 2009, updated 22-May-09
FX market update: The same happened to GBP/EUR which saw a very sharp fall yesterday morning, but recovered afterwards throughout the rest of the day. At the moment though, the euro is...read article: Forex Spread Trading May 2009.
Forex Spread Betting May 2009, updated 08-May-09
FX market: Sterling's good recent run came to an abrupt end after the BoE announced its next tranche of asset purchases. The market was taken a little by surprise as many were expecting the Bank not...read article: Forex Spread Betting May 2009.
Forex Spread Trading April 2009, updated 24-Apr-09
FX market: EUR/USD is back above $1.3000, currently at $1.3070 with the Euro making a bit of ground on Sterling as well as GBP/EUR heads back towards...read article: Forex Spread Trading April 2009.
Forex Spread Betting April 2009, updated 10-Apr-09
FX market: With EUR/USD, our spread betting accounts are very much two way with buyers matching sellers and in truth it is difficult to argue that ...read article: Forex Spread Betting April 2009.
Forex Spread Trading March 2009, updated 27-Mar-09
FX market update: FX markets are still wary of the recent indication that the US might not be opposed to the creation of a 'Super Currency' run by the IMF, the mere mention of which sent the dollar...read article: Forex Spread Trading March 2009.
Forex Spread Betting March 2009, updated 13-Mar-09
FX market: The failure last Friday to push resistance versus the dollar at $1.4340 was not helped by the overall view taken about the 'quantitative easing' policy of the...read article: Forex Spread Betting March 2009.
Forex Spread Trading February 2009, updated 27-Feb-09
FX market update: Against the Euro, the pound seems to have settled into a £1.1000 to £1.1500 range...read article: Forex Spread Trading February 2009.
Forex Spread Betting February 2009, updated 13-Feb-09
FX market: Virtually every major market, having tried valiantly to break out of the current trading ranges, is now pretty much where they closed on Wednesday evening. GBP/USD had a solid look at...read article: Forex Spread Betting February 2009.
Forex Spread Bets January 2009, updated 31-Jan-09
FX market update: Currency markets continue to be the focal point with the battle for the GBP/USD rate to get...read article: Forex Spread Bets January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading January 2009, updated 16-Jan-09
FX market: Strange moves overnight in the currency markets will not have pleased many as the Pound ?took off? in the first few hours of trading opening some...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2009.
Forex Spread Betting January 2009, updated 02-Jan-09
FX market update: the 'dollar bulls' remain positive about the outlook for the dollar as they argue it could replace the Yen as the new carry trade currency. This also indicates that the FX markets are preparing for...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2008, updated 19-Dec-08
FX market: The pound has fallen a minimum of 25% against even the weakest of the other major currencies this year and in the same period our...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2008.
Forex Spread Betting December 2008, updated 05-Dec-08
FX market update: On the Currency front the cut in rates had little effect, there was a brief fall in the Euro and the Pound followed by a short covering rally and now we...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2008.
Forex Spread Trading November 2008, updated 21-Nov-08
FX market: The GBP / USD spread is now $1.5082 - $1.5085 and, to be honest, there is little in the way of resistance or support around the current price. The short term falling trend line is now at...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2008.
Forex Spread Betting November 2008, updated 07-Nov-08
FX market update: The volatility in the GBP / USD market is becoming ever more extreme with the last eleven trading days averaging over 5¢ a day high/low range (3%). This variation represents a...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2008.
Forex Spread Trading October 2008, updated 26-Oct-08
FX market: Traders looking for some kind of support have seen their hopes wiped away as the pound and euro plumb depths not seen for...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2008.
Forex Spread Betting October 2008, updated 10-Oct-08
FX market update: Trading in the Forex markets has been just as violent as the equities as the pound has fallen dramatically out of favour versus the Yen and Dollar. It appeared, briefly, that confidence in...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2008.
Forex Spread Trading September 2008, updated 26-Sep-08
FX market: The Forex markets must have been reading my comment yesterday as Cable failed at almost exactly the resistance of $1.8650 and then moved down to attack the support at $1.8450. Once this had...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2008.
Forex Spread Betting September 2008, updated 12-Sep-08
FX market update: On the FX spread betting front the inability of the Pound, Euro or Yen to hold onto the gains versus the dollar do not bode well in coming sessions. The currency markets are settling in to the new ranges caused by...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2008.
Forex Spread Trade August 2008, updated 29-Aug-08
FX market update: The Euro / Dollar rate is off its lows this morning around the $1.4693 mark and continues to test...read article: Forex Spread Trade August 2008.
Forex Spread Betting August 2008, updated 15-Aug-08
FX market update: We are now sitting just above the massive 2006 GBP / USD support level at around...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2008.
Forex Spread Trading July 2008, updated 01-Aug-08
FX market update: In the Forex spread betting markets the dollar and yen are looking to make gains after the...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2008.
Forex Spread Betting July 2008, updated 18-Jul-08
FX market update: In the Forex Spread Betting world Cable continues to hover around the $2.00 dollar mark but the Euro has, for the time being, given up on the...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008, updated 04-Jul-08
Forex market update: The weak dollar is causing much of the recent commodity spike and the laissez faire attitude of the US administration to the value of the Greenback is coming back to haunt them in the shape of...read article: Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008, updated 20-Jun-08
Forex market update: Every time the pound looks to be in danger of a fall to below $1.94 buyers come in and take it back up to around $1.98 to $2.00. Cable has been in a falling wedge formation since...read article: Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008, updated 06-Jun-08
Forex market update: The pound was dragged a little in the Euros wake yesterday but even so lost over a Euro cent in the post Trichet move. The GBP / USD spread is currently at $1.9581 - $1.9584 this morning and is still at the lower end of the recent trading ranges. Any clients who bought into...read article: Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008.
Forex Spread Bet May 2008, updated 23-May-08
Forex market update: Sterling had one of its surging days yesterday moving higher against every other major currency. We have seen some very heavy buying in the Pound and Euro vs the lower interest rate currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) in the last few sessions as traders...read article: Forex Spread Bet May 2008.
Forex Trading May 2008, updated 09-May-08
Forex market update: Unfortunately the FX markets, which seemed to be selling the Pound and Euro in anticipation of a rate cut from both the ECB and MPC only reversed for the Euro and not for the Pound. Sterling is now weakening again against all the majors and yet another attack on the...read article: Forex Trading May 2008.
Forex Trading April 2008, updated 25-Apr-08
Forex market update: Looking at the Forex Spread Betting markets the Pound actually managed a good day for a change as the Euro and Yen suffered. Of course the real winner was the US Dollar. Cable is now at the bottom of it recent range with dealers probing for any weakness below...read article: Forex Trading April 2008.
Forex Spread Bets April 2008, updated 11-Apr-08
Forex market trading update: The dollar is getting a knock this morning weaker against the majority of other currencies. Sterling attempted to make some sort of recovery against the euro yesterday dipping below the £0.8000 mark. However, since...read article: Forex Spread Bets April 2008.
Forex March Spread Trading, updated 28-Mar-08
Forex markets: On the FX markets the Dollar continues to hold it own for the time being but the pound seems to have hit something of a brick wall overnight. All the majors are unchanged except for the pound which is down 80 pips against the greenback (under $2 again)...and is at a new all time low versus the Euro at £0.7894 which means that we are now over 15%...read article: Forex March Spread Trading.
Real-time Forex Prices and Charts, updated 15-Feb-08
Forex pricing information: On the currency trading front we are very quiet and with no news expected today it may well remain that way for the early trading session. GBP / USD looks to be quite happy at levels near to $1.9700 but we have made a habit of...read article: Real-time Forex Prices and Charts.
UK Forex Spread Trading, updated 01-Feb-08
UK Forex Spread Trading: FX markets are absolutely comatose at the moment and we are trading and re-trading over the same ranges. The pound is pretty much...read article: UK Forex Spread Trading.
Forex January Spread Betting, updated 18-Jan-08
FX markets remain peaceful with the Dollar and Pound continuing to recoup some of the recent losses. The Sterling/Yen cross is now hovering just below the 211.90 support/resistance at a spread of...read article: Forex January Spread Betting.
Forex Trading Online, updated 21-Dec-07
Find out where you can Trade FX Online for free plus your FX trading questions answered, tips on getting free FX charts, real time prices and...read article: Forex Trading Online.
Forex Futures Trading, updated 07-Dec-07
Where to trade Forex Futures plus updated Forex trading news and the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Futures Trading.
Forex Broker, updated 23-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Brokers plus regular Forex financial trading news as well as the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Broker.
Forex Platform, updated 09-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Platforms plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Platform.
Forex Software, updated 26-Oct-07
Where to find free Forex Software information plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Software.
Forex Prices, updated 04-Feb-08
Where to find free Forex Prices plus updated Forex news as well as your top Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Prices.
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