Forex Spread Bets January 2009
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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spread Betting, 30 Jan 2009
Currency markets continue to be the focal point with the battle for the GBP/USD rate to get above $1.4350 failing once again giving the bears the opportunity, overnight, to sell us off down to the current $1.4230-$1.4233.
While we are struggling to make headway to the upside the same could be said to the down with $1.4190 and $1.4100 looking like support (at least in the short term).
Yesterday’s comments from various interested parties in Davos concerning the long term validity of the Euro seem to have given sellers the opportunity to push the EUR/USD cross a little lower but in all honesty I am left with the opinion that this is pretty much pie in the sky.
The pound may be some 8¢ off the lows of a week ago but the Euro is struggling to hold above major ‘closing’ support at $1.2875. A break below this may well give the bears a run at the lows of October down at $1.2330.
On the other hand (of course) continued failure to get lower in the EUR/USD cross is building support and if we stay above the $1.2875 support for a bit longer this may form the base for a return to the bull side.
Sterling has crawled back above €1.10 and the recent failure to approach the lows recorded at the turn of the year will give Sterling bulls some hope of a return to respectability.
The range of forecasts for the fortunes of the pound are even more extreme than is usual with some calling for €0.80 and other saying a return to €1.30 is more likely. The old saying that if you get two economists in a room together, you end up with three opinions has never seemed more appropriate.
Forex Spread Betting, 29 Jan 2009
Sterling is coming in for more pain this morning after the attempted rally failed at $1.4350 around the resistance levels mentioned in yesterdays comment.
Just for once our punters seemed to have been watching the same charts as myself an there was considerable ‘shorting’ of the pound as we approached the level and most of this is still in place this morning as we sit at $1.4080.
George Soros was up to his old tricks at Davos. After stating how much money he had made out of the recent demise in the pound (when do these guys ever admit to a loss?) he then, apparently, went on to say that he did not believe the currency would fall much further.
With such a ringing endorsement how can we resist? The momentum has been so Sterling negative for so long that we do tend to forget that you can actually buy and sell real things in Pounds.
Forex Spread Betting, 28 Jan 2009
Currencies are now difficult to get in on a solid direction as the pound has made a bit of a recovery confounding the absolute bears for a few days at least. The high in Cable at $1.4330 this morning was actually quite an important short term resistance level and the immediate sell off having hit the point is rather disappointing. There was obviously not even a small level of power in the move to challenge to the up side.
As mentioned yesterday, the Sterling rally from the lows were probably due more to weak shorts (trying to get in on the down trend late in the day) being squeezed out rather than any definite reversal. The failure at the first attempt for a move higher is disappointing.
The GBP / USD spread is now at $1.4281-$1.4283 and will probably remain within touching distance of here for the rest of the session until this evening when the FOMC vote on US rates and the Senate vote on President Obama’s stimulus package.
The first vote is probably academic. With interest rates already at 0.25% it is difficult to see what more can be done. The second vote is more problematic. Many in the Senate do not agree with the entire programme but will probably be forced into a yes vote by the sheer momentum of President Obama’s popularity. It is difficult to estimate its effect on the economy as it will probably give a near term stimulus (obviously) but the longer term benefits are less certain.
Forex Spread Betting, 27 Jan 2009
Sterling also managed to rebound from the lows early in yesterday’s session and we are now back ‘up’ at $1.4040-$1.4043. There seems to be a sort of ‘doomsters’ battle going on at the moment with some commentators calling for the death of the Pound and others, quite forcefully, pointing out that such talk is absurd.
As always the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, the UK economy seems to be in a uniquely weak position on the global stage with very little to promote Sterling bulls, not only this but the momentum of the last year is still very definitely in place and the pound continues to trend lower.
Economists point out that the manufacturing base of the UK is still 13% of the economy and has every chance (with such a weak currency) of making a very belated comeback after decades of decline.
Unfortunately the advantages of a weak currency are only really evident when global demand is reasonably robust. It does not matter if your produce is technically cheap if there is no demand to buy it.
On the other hand other economies (with much bigger exporting bases) will be suffering as well and many will not have a falling currency to help them out. This writer has (as readers will know) been wary of the pound for a long time but, since the turn of the year, I have found it increasingly difficult to justify some of the more dramatic comment out there.
The support at $1.3550 to $1.3600 vs the dollar held again yesterday and the ensuing rally showed that there are some weak Sterling ‘shorts’ out there and whilst I am not exactly suggesting a strong rally we may find that dealers discover that the easier direction is up rather than down.
Forex Spread Betting, 26 Jan 2009
The pound is getting a hammering in early action and this does seem odd as well after the currency survived such heavy attacks towards the end of last week to end with some solid buying.
GBP / USD trading is now at around $1.3620 having hit as low as $1.3550 in the small hours. The only small piece of comfort might be that if the move today proves to be abortive then Sterling may find some buyers in the short/medium term.
The Euro, Dollar and Yen are not risk free either. In fact, politically, the Euro might be considered even weaker. With France now spending feely to prop up various sectors (auto and press so far) other nation states may be tempted to join in. President Obama’s huge fiscal stimulus may not be successful and may just throw even more good money after bad. Japan will struggle to export profitably with the Yen at such an extended valuation.
Price Update:
- GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.100 at $1.373 (down -6.79%)
- USD / JPY closed last week down -¥1.7 at ¥89.0 (down -1.87%)
- EUR / USD closed last week down -$0.034 at $1.294 (down -2.56%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.043 at £0.936 (up 4.82%)
Also see:
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Forex Spread Betting, 23 Jan 2009
Sterling continues to weaken overall. The GBP / USD cross seems to have found some support in the mid to low $1.37’s but against the basket of majors the pounds value continues to sink.
In July 2007 the GBP/JPY cross was ¥251.00. As I write we are trading at ¥122.00, an all time low. This is a drop of over 50% meaning that an imported Japanese manufactured product should be double the price of 18 months ago. Slowing demand on our high street is disguising the inflationary impact of the pounds weakness but this will be yet another worry for the future.
Unfortunately every factor seems to be working against the UK at the moment. The house of cards built by Messrs Brown and Blair is in danger of collapsing irreparably. The hope that a weak currency will somehow help to pull us out of the situation seems very old fashioned. We have to have a serious manufacturing base for this to be the case. With such a small percentage of our economy actually based on export manufacturing, and what we have still having to survive the global downturn, any hope for bonuses seems a long way away right now.
Forex Spread Betting, 21 Jan 2009
As Sterling continues to crumble dealers are falling over themselves to offload the currency and with virtually every analyst giving ever more dire prognoses for the beleaguered pound it is tempting to suggest that a small contrarian punt might be in order. With the current GBP / USD spread at around $1.3775 we have seen reversals that struggle to be rational.
Forex Spread Betting, 20 Jan 2009
Sterling is now back at the grim levels of the year end with the Cable rate plumbing a new low in early action this morning. The GBP/USD cross is now at $1.4140, 750 pips off the highs of yesterday.
Readers of this column will know that we have been consistently wary of the pound for over a year. The accelerating destruction of value is not exactly confidence inspiring. Huge public debt, massive trade deficits and very low interest rates are not likely to attract investors to our shores. It is likely that the Gilt markets will take a heavy pounding at some point in the medium term as the potential for further rate cuts winds down and the counter pressure off excessive issuance combined with credit worthiness fears act to deter buyers (even the UK could lose its AAA rating).
I am sorry to have to say that the UK appears to be entering a ‘perfect storm’ where virtually every asset class begins to lose value in local terms. Already the average UK citizen is some 35% poorer in world terms than they were at the end of 2007. This is a massive hit to the collective wealth of the nation and not something that can be easily reversed.
Forex Spread Betting, 19 Jan 2009
In the Forex Spread Betting markets the pound continues to look weak after the rally of a few weeks ago failed to find any second wind. The Industrial Output numbers last week were truly awful and with the rest of the economy depending on a service sector which is going in ever decreasing circles it is not impossible to see the pound continue ever lower (no matter what the ‘true’ valuation should be).
If the rest of the world does not need what financial services we have left (or the financial centre moves further East) then the outlook for sterling may deteriorate further.
Price Update:
- GBP / USD closed last week down -$0.045 at $1.473 (down -2.96%)
- USD / JPY closed last week up ¥0.5 at ¥90.7 (up 0.55%)
- EUR / USD closed last week down -$0.020 at $1.328 (down -1.48%)
- EUR / GBP closed last week up £0.006 at £0.893 (up 0.68%)
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'Forex Spread Bets January 2009' by DB, updated 31-Jan-09
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Forex Spread Betting May 2010, updated 07-May-10
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Forex Spread Betting April 2010, updated 09-Apr-10
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Forex Spread Betting March 2010, updated 12-Mar-10
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Forex Spread Trading February 2010, updated 26-Feb-10
FX market update: Cracks have appeared in the recovery and FX markets in particular have shown alarming moves that indicate they are preparing for...read article: Forex Spread Trading February 2010.
Forex Spread Betting February 2010, updated 12-Feb-10
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Forex Spread Trading January 2010, updated 29-Jan-10
FX market update: On the currency front, the Euro has been weakening again, finally dropping below $1.40 yesterday. The currency is...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2010.
Forex Spread Betting January 2010, updated 15-Jan-10
FX market update: The US retail sales didn't help the Dollar much and it drifted back to the ¥91.00 mark against the Yen. With the rate at...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2010.
Forex Spread Bets December 2009, updated 01-Jan-10
FX market update: Interesting movements in the Forex spreads markets are just about the only thing worth focussing on at the moment. Yesterday the Dollar waxed and waned, managing a...read article: Forex Spread Bets December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2009, updated 18-Dec-09
FX market update: The momentum against Cable was compounded by some negative UK retail sales which flew in the face of recent reports from retailers like...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2009.
Forex Spread Betting December 2009, updated 04-Dec-09
FX market update: The Euro managed to exactly match our commented range of $1.5140 to $1.5040/60 in yesterday's session. It traded at...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2009.
Forex Spread Trading November 2009, updated 20-Nov-09
FX market update: Currency markets are mixed this morning but largely in favour of the Dollar. Cable is heading lower as once again it fails to test...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2009.
Forex Spread Betting November 2009, updated 06-Nov-09
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Forex Spread Trading October 2009, updated 23-Oct-09
FX market update: Trading continues to be very contained in the EUR/USD cross with the $1.49 level seeming to hold an irresistible attraction. Last night it seemed that...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2009.
Forex Spread Betting October 2009, updated 09-Oct-09
FX market update: Mervyn King muttered about a weak currency helping exporters but I have to say that this commentator is yet to see any evidence of...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2009.
Forex Spread Trading September 2009, updated 25-Sep-09
FX market update: The weakness of the Pound versus other majors has merely been reflected by the Dollars own lack of strength. Versus the Euro the cross seems unable to...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting September 2009, updated 11-Sep-09
FX market update: As mentioned many times over the last few months the Dollar continues to suffer from what looks like benign neglect from the...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2009.
Forex Spread Betting August 2009, updated 28-Aug-09
FX market update: The pound/dollar range at $1.62 to $1.66 eventually held the upper hand and after testing the markets below $1.62 the volume attraction of this range reasserted its pull. In truth the opening hours today have...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2009.
Forex Spread Trading August 2009, updated 14-Aug-09
FX market update: On the currency front the pound made a big rebound from the lows with the Yen (especially) falling back after a strong run. The sharp spike lower in GBP/JPY in a frantic...read article: Forex Spread Trading August 2009.
Forex Spread Trading July 2009, updated 31-Jul-09
FX market update: The equity market rally though took its toil as investors sold the dollar in favour of equities. Sterling did well out of...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2009.
Forex Spread Betting July 2009, updated 17-Jul-09
FX market update: The dollar is making a little ground back against sterling. Rather like the equity markets there is a lack of direction and a real tussle between the
...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2009.
Forex Spread Bets June 2009, updated 03-Jul-09
FX market update: Sterling is also managing to sit tight against some serious tests of support. Cable has drifted sideways through the short term upward trend line which is marginally worrying and this may give cause for a move back into the $1.58 to $1.60 region. However sometimes trend lines just lose their...read article: Forex Spread Bets June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading June 2009, updated 19-Jun-09
FX market update: Forex markets must have read my comment yesterday as the pound made an almost carbon copy move to Wednesday's price action. The total net effect over the last three days has been...read article: Forex Spread Trading June 2009.
Forex Spread Betting June 2009, updated 05-Jun-09
FX market update: Even though the GBP/USD spread betting market has fallen from a high of $1.6670 on Wednesday to the current $1.6050 there have been some big rallies amidst the 6 cent fall. Clients have been trying to buy into...read article: Forex Spread Betting June 2009.
Forex Spread Trading May 2009, updated 22-May-09
FX market update: The same happened to GBP/EUR which saw a very sharp fall yesterday morning, but recovered afterwards throughout the rest of the day. At the moment though, the euro is...read article: Forex Spread Trading May 2009.
Forex Spread Betting May 2009, updated 08-May-09
FX market: Sterling's good recent run came to an abrupt end after the BoE announced its next tranche of asset purchases. The market was taken a little by surprise as many were expecting the Bank not...read article: Forex Spread Betting May 2009.
Forex Spread Trading April 2009, updated 24-Apr-09
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Forex Spread Betting April 2009, updated 10-Apr-09
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Forex Spread Trading March 2009, updated 27-Mar-09
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Forex Spread Betting February 2009, updated 13-Feb-09
FX market: Virtually every major market, having tried valiantly to break out of the current trading ranges, is now pretty much where they closed on Wednesday evening. GBP/USD had a solid look at...read article: Forex Spread Betting February 2009.
Forex Spread Bets January 2009, updated 31-Jan-09
FX market update: Currency markets continue to be the focal point with the battle for the GBP/USD rate to get...read article: Forex Spread Bets January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading January 2009, updated 16-Jan-09
FX market: Strange moves overnight in the currency markets will not have pleased many as the Pound ?took off? in the first few hours of trading opening some...read article: Forex Spread Trading January 2009.
Forex Spread Betting January 2009, updated 02-Jan-09
FX market update: the 'dollar bulls' remain positive about the outlook for the dollar as they argue it could replace the Yen as the new carry trade currency. This also indicates that the FX markets are preparing for...read article: Forex Spread Betting January 2009.
Forex Spread Trading December 2008, updated 19-Dec-08
FX market: The pound has fallen a minimum of 25% against even the weakest of the other major currencies this year and in the same period our...read article: Forex Spread Trading December 2008.
Forex Spread Betting December 2008, updated 05-Dec-08
FX market update: On the Currency front the cut in rates had little effect, there was a brief fall in the Euro and the Pound followed by a short covering rally and now we...read article: Forex Spread Betting December 2008.
Forex Spread Trading November 2008, updated 21-Nov-08
FX market: The GBP / USD spread is now $1.5082 - $1.5085 and, to be honest, there is little in the way of resistance or support around the current price. The short term falling trend line is now at...read article: Forex Spread Trading November 2008.
Forex Spread Betting November 2008, updated 07-Nov-08
FX market update: The volatility in the GBP / USD market is becoming ever more extreme with the last eleven trading days averaging over 5¢ a day high/low range (3%). This variation represents a...read article: Forex Spread Betting November 2008.
Forex Spread Trading October 2008, updated 26-Oct-08
FX market: Traders looking for some kind of support have seen their hopes wiped away as the pound and euro plumb depths not seen for...read article: Forex Spread Trading October 2008.
Forex Spread Betting October 2008, updated 10-Oct-08
FX market update: Trading in the Forex markets has been just as violent as the equities as the pound has fallen dramatically out of favour versus the Yen and Dollar. It appeared, briefly, that confidence in...read article: Forex Spread Betting October 2008.
Forex Spread Trading September 2008, updated 26-Sep-08
FX market: The Forex markets must have been reading my comment yesterday as Cable failed at almost exactly the resistance of $1.8650 and then moved down to attack the support at $1.8450. Once this had...read article: Forex Spread Trading September 2008.
Forex Spread Betting September 2008, updated 12-Sep-08
FX market update: On the FX spread betting front the inability of the Pound, Euro or Yen to hold onto the gains versus the dollar do not bode well in coming sessions. The currency markets are settling in to the new ranges caused by...read article: Forex Spread Betting September 2008.
Forex Spread Trade August 2008, updated 29-Aug-08
FX market update: The Euro / Dollar rate is off its lows this morning around the $1.4693 mark and continues to test...read article: Forex Spread Trade August 2008.
Forex Spread Betting August 2008, updated 15-Aug-08
FX market update: We are now sitting just above the massive 2006 GBP / USD support level at around...read article: Forex Spread Betting August 2008.
Forex Spread Trading July 2008, updated 01-Aug-08
FX market update: In the Forex spread betting markets the dollar and yen are looking to make gains after the...read article: Forex Spread Trading July 2008.
Forex Spread Betting July 2008, updated 18-Jul-08
FX market update: In the Forex Spread Betting world Cable continues to hover around the $2.00 dollar mark but the Euro has, for the time being, given up on the...read article: Forex Spread Betting July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008, updated 04-Jul-08
Forex market update: The weak dollar is causing much of the recent commodity spike and the laissez faire attitude of the US administration to the value of the Greenback is coming back to haunt them in the shape of...read article: Forex Financial Spread Bet July 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008, updated 20-Jun-08
Forex market update: Every time the pound looks to be in danger of a fall to below $1.94 buyers come in and take it back up to around $1.98 to $2.00. Cable has been in a falling wedge formation since...read article: Forex Financial Spread Trading June 2008.
Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008, updated 06-Jun-08
Forex market update: The pound was dragged a little in the Euros wake yesterday but even so lost over a Euro cent in the post Trichet move. The GBP / USD spread is currently at $1.9581 - $1.9584 this morning and is still at the lower end of the recent trading ranges. Any clients who bought into...read article: Forex Financial Spread Betting June 2008.
Forex Spread Bet May 2008, updated 23-May-08
Forex market update: Sterling had one of its surging days yesterday moving higher against every other major currency. We have seen some very heavy buying in the Pound and Euro vs the lower interest rate currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) in the last few sessions as traders...read article: Forex Spread Bet May 2008.
Forex Trading May 2008, updated 09-May-08
Forex market update: Unfortunately the FX markets, which seemed to be selling the Pound and Euro in anticipation of a rate cut from both the ECB and MPC only reversed for the Euro and not for the Pound. Sterling is now weakening again against all the majors and yet another attack on the...read article: Forex Trading May 2008.
Forex Trading April 2008, updated 25-Apr-08
Forex market update: Looking at the Forex Spread Betting markets the Pound actually managed a good day for a change as the Euro and Yen suffered. Of course the real winner was the US Dollar. Cable is now at the bottom of it recent range with dealers probing for any weakness below...read article: Forex Trading April 2008.
Forex Spread Bets April 2008, updated 11-Apr-08
Forex market trading update: The dollar is getting a knock this morning weaker against the majority of other currencies. Sterling attempted to make some sort of recovery against the euro yesterday dipping below the £0.8000 mark. However, since...read article: Forex Spread Bets April 2008.
Forex March Spread Trading, updated 28-Mar-08
Forex markets: On the FX markets the Dollar continues to hold it own for the time being but the pound seems to have hit something of a brick wall overnight. All the majors are unchanged except for the pound which is down 80 pips against the greenback (under $2 again)...and is at a new all time low versus the Euro at £0.7894 which means that we are now over 15%...read article: Forex March Spread Trading.
Real-time Forex Prices and Charts, updated 15-Feb-08
Forex pricing information: On the currency trading front we are very quiet and with no news expected today it may well remain that way for the early trading session. GBP / USD looks to be quite happy at levels near to $1.9700 but we have made a habit of...read article: Real-time Forex Prices and Charts.
UK Forex Spread Trading, updated 01-Feb-08
UK Forex Spread Trading: FX markets are absolutely comatose at the moment and we are trading and re-trading over the same ranges. The pound is pretty much...read article: UK Forex Spread Trading.
Forex January Spread Betting, updated 18-Jan-08
FX markets remain peaceful with the Dollar and Pound continuing to recoup some of the recent losses. The Sterling/Yen cross is now hovering just below the 211.90 support/resistance at a spread of...read article: Forex January Spread Betting.
Forex Trading Online, updated 21-Dec-07
Find out where you can Trade FX Online for free plus your FX trading questions answered, tips on getting free FX charts, real time prices and...read article: Forex Trading Online.
Forex Futures Trading, updated 07-Dec-07
Where to trade Forex Futures plus updated Forex trading news and the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Futures Trading.
Forex Broker, updated 23-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Brokers plus regular Forex financial trading news as well as the most popular Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Broker.
Forex Platform, updated 09-Nov-07
Where to find free Forex Platforms plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Platform.
Forex Software, updated 26-Oct-07
Where to find free Forex Software information plus updated Forex trading news as well as the most popular Forex queries answered....read article: Forex Software.
Forex Prices, updated 04-Feb-08
Where to find free Forex Prices plus updated Forex news as well as your top Forex questions answered....read article: Forex Prices.
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