The dollar is getting a knock this morning weaker against the majority of other currencies. Sterling attempted to make some sort of recovery against the euro yesterday dipping below the £0.8000 mark. However, since 7am it seems the London FX fraternity got to their desks and just sold off any remaining British pounds they had to send the rate back to £0.8015.
Spread Betting on FX, 10 Apr 08
Sterling has weakened even further and (whilst I wish it were otherwise) it is difficult to see the trend changing. The extreme weakness of the UK economic situation must lead to pressure somewhere and the currency is the first place to feel it. As our energy needs are increasingly sourced from external supply the immediate impact will be for a worsening of the trade deficit so we may foresee a trend where worse trade numbers cause a weaker pound which causes worse numbers etc until it all goes too far and snaps back.
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Spread Betting on FX, 9 Apr 08
Currencies are mixed this morning. Nevertheless Sterling continues to weaken against the majors having hit another record and landmark low earlier this morning, £0.8000. The GBP / EUR cross is currently at £0.7985. The Euro / Dollar market is taking a little breather at the $1.5710 mark. That’s just below record highs with resistance marked in at $1.5900 since the cross has failed to trade above here twice in March. Capital Spreads Clients remain bullish of the euro, both against the dollar and sterling, expecting the current trend to continue.
Spread Betting on FX, 8 Apr 08
Sterling continues to tumble against the Euro. It’s also performing poorly against the dollar as every time a piece of housing data is released from the UK, it points to falling prices. With the Bank of England deciding on rates on Thursday, many now are hoping for a 0.25% cut in rates, rather than having previously expecting the next cut to come in May. The market will certainly be disappointed if there isn't any action this time round. Euro / Sterling cross is now up at £0.7965, dangerously close to recording another record high above £0.7980.
Spread Betting on FX, 7 Apr 08
Looking at the FX markets the dollar has come in after the weekend with a spring in its step and is pressuring the Yen and Pound once more (and managing to hold back the Euro). Cable had another look above $2 last week but each peek above the line is getting weaker and shorter lived (this one did not even last a full trading session). The inference is that we are seeing a falling high tide mark every time which is generally seen as a precursor to a more sustained fall.
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Spread Betting on FX, 4 Apr 08
The FX markets had the good manners to bounce off the support levels mentioned yesterday with Sterling rebounding strongly from $1.9750, the USD / GBP spreads is now at $1.9970 - $1.9973. The Euro is rejecting the sub $1.56 region and has bounced up to $1.5686 - $1.5688. Sterling has had its best few days for quite some time as the Bank of England credit report came in showing weakness as feared but not too much. It also indicated that whilst the banks were likely to draw in their lending lines not everything was gloom and doom. There is almost certain to be a rate cut at the next meeting but this might be it for some time and the currency traders took heart from the more certain outlook.
Spread Betting on FX, 3 Apr 08
On the Currency front the dollar continues to put in a good performance raising well above 100 against the yen and pushing towards $1.56 versus the Euro. Rather unnervingly the GBP/EUR and EUR/USD have swapped places over the past six months where the sterling cross was at the €1.50 level it is now at €1.25 and the dollar/euro has gone the other way moving from $1.25 up to $1.50. A good indication (if any were needed) of the continued decay in both the pound and the greenback.
Cable is back in the $1.97's region which, over the last six weeks, has proved to be something of a support level, particularly at around $1.9725 to $1.9750. Sterling longs will be hoping for another bounce from here. The trend though does not look particularly positive and there may be fears of a failure here and a consequent move down to the $1.9350 to $1.9400 major support level.
Spread Trading FX, 31 Mar 08
FX markets were looking dollar friendly this morning but the pressure on the Greenback appears to be reasserting itself and the Euro and Yen have both bounced from early weakness and are now slightly to the good on the weekend levels. Unfortunately the pound is weak even against the dollar and is now at £0.7960 vs the Euro, a new all time low. The chances for the Bank of England to have any impact on imported inflation now seem remote indeed. Even holding rates artificially high has done nothing to prop up the poor old pound. Virtually every manufactured import will now be costing some 20% more this year than last, if you add in commodity increases (at least these are priced in dollars) the wonder is that the retailers have managed to keep such a cap on high street prices.
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Bets April 2008' by DB, updated 11-Apr-08
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