Sterling had one of its surging days yesterday moving higher against every other major currency. We have seen some very heavy buying in the Pound and Euro vs the lower interest rate currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) in the last few sessions as traders search out for return. Rates have moved around so much in the last six months or so that there is a great deal of room for solid shifts in one direction or the other without impacting fundamental valuations.
FX Spread Betting, 20 May 08
Looking at Forex Spread Betting we are seeing a very swift repost to yesterday’s dollar strength with the pound regaining all its losses before we even walked in the door today. Cable is building a strong support in the $1.94 to $1.9450 region and we have bounced solidly off here several times in the past few months. The current GBP / USD spread is $1.9565 - $1.9568 is pretty much mid market for current trading levels but dealers will be hoping for more of a rally as we saw some solid buying below $1.95 yesterday afternoon.
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FX Spread Betting, 15 May 08
The Euro is having a bounce following this morning’s GDP data from Germany and France, currently trading at $1.5540 and Cable (GBP / USD) is also a little higher at $1.9485.
FX Spread Betting, 14 May 08
The dollar continues to strengthen against other majors this morning and Cable (GBP / USD) in particular is at an interesting level. $1.9400 is a big support level and has tempted some of our clients to go long of the pound in the hope for a bounce, but a fall below here and it looks like $1.9000 might be the next stop.
FX Spread Betting, 13 May 08
The Pound Dollar cross obligingly bounced off the support mentioned yesterday at $1.9450 after the PPI numbers came in even stronger than forecast (rather backing up the MPC’s rate decision last week). The outlook for rate cuts, whilst compelling on several fronts, is rather weakened by the blowtorch of increasing inflationary pressures. Maybe the committee will ignore the price rise data and go for growth (as per the Fed) but it would be a brave man to predict this as it would be flying in the face of the last ten years off policy. Unfortunately higher rates are unlikely to come to the aid of the pound for long as there is a swathe of other factors pushing down its attractions. A couple of percent over a year in added income hardly compensates for the huge trade and budget deficits.
FX Spread Betting, 12 May 08
Forex traders seem to be dollar favourable this morning with the Yen giving up 80 and the Euro 100 pips from Friday’s close. The pound is recovering a little of last weeks losses but it must be said that the momentum is still very much pound unfavourable. The GBP / USD spread is at $1.9481 - $1.9484 having printed new 10 week lows at $1.9440 in early action. Unfortunately the pound seems to have got itself into a ‘lower low, lower high’ cycle versus the dollar over the past few weeks and we need to break out of this sentiment soon otherwise we will be pressuring serious weekly closing support levels at around $1.9300 which, if broken, could well see the pound slumping back into the 2003-2006 trading range of $1.7000 to $1.9000.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex Spread Bet May 2008' by DB, updated 23-May-08
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