It's been a quiet night for currencies and gold, although the euro did hit another record high in Asian trade. For once we haven't come into the office to see gold another $15 higher but this looks like a respite rather than a change in direction. Clients continue to battle against the trend of the euro, which does look a little over extended. However it will take a brave person to call the top of what's slowly taking over the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Forex Spread Trading, 8 Nov 07
The focus of the day will be the ECB and MPC rate decisions. Both are expected to keep rates on hold, much to the dislike of many who would like to see the UK cut from 5.75% to 5.5%. It's difficult to see what more evidence they need in order to see the effect that the credit crunch is having on the markets. However they insist that it is still not clear how the economy will react and that high oil prices are a threat to them meeting their inflation target.
Forex Spread Trading, 7 Nov 07
The US dollar continues to take a pounding as many FX desks around the world start to believe that the greenback is truly starting to believe that it is losing its global currency status. It's amazing what effect top model Gisele Bundchen can have on global currency markets when she says she'd rather be paid in euros as opposed to dollars.
Has Gisele secretly been spread betting and keeping an eye on the markets or has she noticed that the Euro has appreciated over 75% against the dollar during the last sevens years? Perhaps she’s just noticed the 16% appreciation in the last year. No doubt a few traders in London would also prefer to be paid in euros than dollars.
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Forex Spread Trading, 6 Nov 07
Cable came to the aid of our spread betting accounts yesterday as the dollar recovered sufficiently for them to close out shorts for small profits having sat with nasty losses on the close on Friday. This morning the market has move back again towards the 2.0900 level and is currently at 2.0865-2.0868, punters have taken the move in early activity as another selling opportunity and are now very short once more. The weakness of the industrial production numbers yesterday was the catalyst for the drop and the rebound this morning is more of a reaction against the dollar rather than a vote for the pound.
Eur/jpy is oscillating between 165.00 and 167.00 at the moment as dealers ponder the next move. Euro values are extremely high but the momentum is still very much with the currency and (sorry to have to remind everyone) the carry trade is still very much in the euro's favour (and potentially widening as well). At 166.48-166.51 our punters are very much two way looking for some indication of the next move.
Forex Spread Trading, 5 Nov 07
On the FX front the dollar is recovering some of the losses of Friday with cable now at 2.0839-2.0842 down from a high of 2.0896-2.0899 (just 1 tiny little pip away from 2.0900) clients have held onto shorts through the rally and are getting some welcome relief this morning. There is some support at 2.0825 and 2.0810 and some heavy volume congestion between 2.0760 and 2.0800. If we get below here though the chances increase of a turn in the recent bull sterling run so shorts will be hoping for a pull back to trigger fears of a high having been hit. Versus the yen the 240 region has once more proved to be something of a cusp point. Over the past four trading days the market has bounced in a 200 point range underneath this level and we are now waiting to see if this is a prelude to a big break out or an equally impressive sell off.
Forex Spread Trading, 2 Nov 07
The FX markets have almost shut up shop over the past few days as sterling and euro remain at the highs versus the dollar and the usd/yen continues to be mysteriously attracted by the mid 114's. Punters are still trying to pick a high on the cable cross and have been taking the odd pip profits over the past 24 hour trading session. But the danger remains that there may be a bear hunt in the offing as weak shorts get hunted down. We have had one yesterday as the price squeezed up to 2.0875 and then fell back down again so shorts are advised to keep their stops tight.
The eur/usd cross seems happy at the moment between 144 and 144.75 and we have oscillated between here several times in the past three days. With the current price at 1.4467-1.4469 we are seeing some sellers looking for a confirmation of this target range.
Forex Spread Trading, 1 Nov 07
The dollar is recouping some of the losses of yesterday as the pound ponders a life up at 2.08. The charts and momentum are all against the greenback at the moment but it is difficult to see how sterling can remain at these elevated levels for an extended period. The problem is that this is the feeling of too many punters and traders and the price is being dragged higher by too many 'weak' sellers being continually stopped out on a rolling move. Punters remain very short of cable and are benefiting from the mornings slip but everyone must beware the sharp squeezes that are a feature of the current price action.
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Forex Spread Trading, 31 Oct 07
FX markets continue to hammer the dollar but today the Yen is also taking a pounding as rumours of the death of the carry trade continue to be exaggerated. Whilst the cable cross is now over 2.07 for the first time since 'our maggie' was in charge of proceedings the USD/YEN is failing to challenge the 113 to 114 support range and is, in fact, this morning moving in the other direction towards 115 spread trading at 114.96-114.98. The 115.00 level has proved something of a cusp point in the past few months where, if we break through in either direction, the market then moves substantially but if it fails to break then we react with a retracement.
Clients are continuing to sell the pound at these levels and must be wary of a spike as dealers search for weak shorts. It is tempting to suggest that it is foolish to hold a position into this afternoon’s US GDP data and/or the Fed announcement this evening. Either of these could cause a swift price action that may harm short term position holders (in either direction) as there is always the chance of a shift in both directions in just a few seconds.
Forex Spread Trading, 30 Oct 07
On the FX front Cable, like the FTSE, had a sniff at the highs yesterday before selling off back into the 2.0500's but this morning we are seeing increasing buying below 2.0600 as punters begin to believe that the pound can follow the euro higher. GBP/EUR has bounced off the 1.4240 level again and may now be looking at a double bottom on the charts. If the pound returns to favour there is quite a bit of room for manoeuvre above here at the moment with bulls looking for an initial target of 1.4500 and then way up at 1.4800. Of course it will take a significant change in euro perception for this to happen and the most likely direction is still a continuation of the current trend lower but…
Forex Spread Trading, 29 Oct 07
FX markets continue to favour Europe over the Dollar with the Euro now at a new all time high, it's over 1.44 for the first time. Trying to short the Euro has been dear for many traders but we are now in fresh air on the harts and it is difficult to see what will turn the mighty euro around. There is minor support at 1.4380 and major support way down at 1.4075 with resistance on an extension move at 1.4440 and then at 1.4590.
Cable is merrily following in the euro's wake as dealers probe the easier direction. With many punters trying to short the market dealers are pushing higher trying to take out weak shorts. In the current environment there is a chance of a serious spike higher. The spread betting cross is now at 2.0574-2.0577 with our clients dangerously trying to find a high and selling all the way.
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