Looking at the Forex markets the added dollar liquidity push had a curious effect in that the greenback actually rallied yesterday afternoon when many would have expected the opposite. There may be a feeling that the Fed may not be as aggressive on the rate cutting front as they await the effects of this latest wheeze to filter through. This morning though the dollar is again on the back foot as the pound goes back above $2.0100 and the Euro probes towards $1.5400 once more. There is building support for the pound to remain above $2.0000 as yesterdays action briefly tested the level before retracing to the current price. In fact, the four hour period between 11 and 3 yesterday saw an attempt at the top of the range at $2.0215 and at the bottom already mentioned. With the current pound / dollar spread of 2.0112-2.0115 we are sitting comfortably. However, as always, spread betting clients are looking for levels to sell anything pound orientated so the pressure with no new news may be to the downside versus all the majors.
Spread Trading FX, 11 Mar 08
Sterling weakened slightly yesterday as the general drift away from the currency tends to reassert itself when nothing much is going on. Cable briefly spiked above $2.02 but ended the day down at $2.0090 - $2.0093 where we remain this morning. Traders are selling any rallies with us but are very cautious and are quick to get out at any adverse move.
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Spread Trading FX, 10 Mar 08
The dollar is weaker this morning with euro/dollar just below its all time highs trading at $1.5380. Sterling is also stronger against the greenback at $2.0170 showing that the structural difficulties faced by the dollar are very much in tact. The more the US economy weakens, then the more likely it is that the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates even further, which is unlikely to stop their currency from continuing to weaken. What's even worse is that it still doesn't seem to be helping their exports either with the world's biggest economy ever relying on the new power house China to provide them with cheap goods.
Spread Trading FX, 6 Mar 08
FX markets are hitting the dollar yet again as the Yen recovers some of it losses of Wednesday and the euro hits new highs against the greenback and pound as sellers are run down in the one way traffic. With the Fed likely to cut further and the BOE and ECB still worried about inflation the poor old dollar has few friends just at the moment. Much of the recent strength in the commodities markets can be laid at the door of the currency in which most of them are priced. In Euro terms Gold is actually 30% lower than the apparent current value. With the pound either stuck to (or falling) against the USD imported one off inflation shocks can be expected.
Today's BOE decision should keep the markets quiet until then but the speculation that the Uber Hawks in the MPC will maintain rates at current levels makes equities look fragile and Sterling looks like the bet of the day. The pound still needs to break and close above $1.9960 for a change in the current bear direction. Today could be a good one for that to happen. If we fail again this time then that will make it three failures which is generally a pretty negative signal.
Spread Trading FX, 5 Mar 08
On the FX markets the Dollar has recovered some poise but the principal loser has unfortunately been the Pound once again. Vs the Euro we are at all time lows (again! put another record on). Against the Yen we are currently bang on support at 204.90. For the last two trading session sterling has actually traded below this but has managed on both occasions to claw its way higher by the closes. Pressure on the currency appears to be growing and with a big Gilt issuance programme this year this is unlikely to slacken in the short term.
Spread Trading FX, 4 Mar 08
With the dollar coming in for such a pounding the travails of the pound have been slightly hidden. Historically we look towards the gbp/usd cross rate for our impression of the strength or weakness of sterling. Versus the Yen we are now back down at the lows below 205.00 and the Euro is quite comfortably maintaining its level above £0.7600.
With JPY, 204.50 and 203.50 should see some support but the trend remains very much to the downside (as I have repeatedly mentioned over the past few months) and anyone holidaying in Europe this summer will be made painfully aware that prices (in sterling terms) are 15%, yes 15%, higher this year than last. This puts our current 4% RPI in perspective.
Spread Trading FX, 3 Mar 08
FX markets had another go at recent dollar lows in early action this morning but buyers were as strong this time as previously. The Euro has seen some solid selling at the $1.5240 level (as we saw on Thursday and Friday) and has reacted with a swift drop to $1.5185 - $1.5187. The markets appear poised for another dramatic move but, unfortunately, the direction is not clear. There will be a lot of traders who have sold the Euro above $1.5000 and these may be considered ‘weak’ holders. There is a good chance that a new move will develop to the upside to try to squeeze these positions. On the other hand, it cannot be denied that a $1.50 EUR / USD cross is unsustainable in the long run as Europe would simply grind to a halt as it’s competitive position erodes away.
Sterling is weakening in line with Euroland this morning at $1.9815 - $1.9818 vs the dollar but has already rejected the all time lows against the Euro of £0.7680 in early morning action in the Far East.
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Forex March Spread Betting' by DB, updated 14-Mar-08
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