The GBP / USD cross rate had the good manners to bounce neatly off the support level mentioned yesterday at $1.9750 and climbed throughout the day back to the same resistance level at around $1.9950 - $1.9970 where it had failed on Wednesday. We are now back below $1.99 and seemingly comfortable at $1.9887 - $1.9890. Traders will probably leave it alone for the time being until some direction becomes more evident.
Sellers of the Euro believing that the $1.50 level vs the dollar was a good point to set up shorts were rudely awakened by the continued move higher. The Euro - Dollar spread is now at $1.5226 - $1.5228 (yet another all time high) and bears are being squeezed. There were almost certainly a large number of $1.50 Call options written over the past year or so and these positions are looking very, very vulnerable.
Spread Trading, 28 Feb 08
The Dollar is attempting something of a small bounce today with the euro retreating from highs of $1.5145 to the current level of $1.5090 - $1.5092 but the pound is suffering rather more and is now at all time lows versus the Euro (once again) at £0.7631.
Against the Dollar, Sterling has given up 200 pips from the highs of yesterday (oddly enough the same highs as the last rally in late January) and is now back down at $1.9770 - $1.9773. The resistance at $1.9750 which acted to hold back the initial rally on Tuesday may well act as support today but if we close under here this evening then we will be back in the $1.9390 - $1.9750 range that has dominated trading for the last month.
Spread Trading, 27 Feb 08
FX markets were very Dollar negative yesterday and the Euro is now over $1.50 (a new all time high) and it is this action that amplifies how far the pound has fallen in recent months. Even though it rallied strongly yesterday in line with the other currencies, it is still some $0.125 from the peak set in November. Imported inflation will start to look very grim over the coming half year so we can expect some even nastier PPI figures.
With January sales seeming to be strong and commodity inflation so prevalent the Bank of England (hawks at the best of times) will probably see no need to cut rates this time round. The hair shirt of monetarism looks set to irritate us for a while longer. This may keep the pound reasonably stable for a while but if the Trade and Public deficit numbers continue to make grim reading and growth slows below expectations then the long term trend is unlikely to be up.
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Forex Spread Betting, 26 Feb 08
The dollar is better off this morning with cable around $1.9660 and Euro / Dollar $1.4790. The jury is still very much out as to whether the dollar's spectacular demise in 2007 is over and any attempt by cable to get back above the $2 mark will mean we're still in a dollar bearish market.
Forex Spread Betting, 25 Feb 08
There’s no comment from Simon on the FX markets today. So let's have a quick look at the FinancialSpreads.com prices:
Looking at the FX markets, the Pound neatly bounced off the support levels below $1.9400 and we are now almost 300 pips higher at $1.9658 - $1.9661 as the dollar weakens. Versus the Euro and Yen it is more, same as, same as, as we settle at £0.7550 and around the 210.50 levels. With comments saying that the US might already be in recession the Dollar may struggle to repeat the moves of recent months and we are seeing a greater numbers of sellers than is usual.
Forex Spread Betting, 21 Feb 08
On the Pound Trading front, the support vs the Dollar held once more last night and we have bounced slightly to $1.9462 - $1.9465. Bears seem to be in the ascendancy at the moment but the continued inability of the market to close below $1.9390 is giving sellers some pause for thought. Against the Euro and Yen we are also probing the lower end of recent trading ranges but (as with the dollar) the supports are still holding out.
Forex Spread Betting, 20 Feb 08
FX markets are showing continued pressure on Sterling support levels in the mid $1.94’s vs the dollar and the mid £0.75’s against the Euro. Major levels are $1.9390 and £0.7605 respectively and if the 09.30 Treasury numbers come in worse than expected we could see a swift attack on these from the markets.
Forex Spread Betting, 19 Feb 08
On the FX front the pound continues to battle it out around the $1.9500 region having had a few goes yesterday and early this morning at $ 1.9470. The support at this level looks surprisingly strong and will be giving sterling bulls some confidence. Having said that, the bounces are not taking us above $1.9535, that conversely will be also tempting the bears. With the GBP / USD spread at $1.9525 - $1.9528 the Capital Spreads range trading clients are selling (with tight stops). With little information out this morning we can anticipate a quiet session.
Versus the Euro we are not doing so well...again...the pound is trading above the £0.75 level again. Continued probing up here raises the fear that a break out could take us significantly lower. Traders will be watching resistance at £0.7545 and then (if broken) £0.7600. The downward trend, in place since early September, shows no signs of reversing and as currency traders are want to say ‘the trend is your friend’. The current EUR / GBP spread is at £0.7540 - £0.7542. That puts us just under the lower resistance level and will be tempting a few day traders in.
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Forex Spread Betting, 18 Feb 08
FX markets are being pound nasty again today in a small way. The GBP / USD spread is off 80 pips at $1.9522-$1.9525 as we oscillate around the $1.9400 to $1.9700 range once more. The failure to make headway last week on the pound bounce from $1.9390 is causing some negative momentum and dealers will be waiting to see if buyers can be found in the low $1.9500 region before coming to sterling’s aid.
'Forex February Spread Trading' by DB, updated 29-Feb-08
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