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Forex Spread Trading
A regular Forex spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Forex spread trading update, click here.
Forex Spread Trading, 23 Nov 07
In FX the dollar has taken an overnight pounding and as feared in yesterday's comment the failure of the Greenback to get back above 109.15 vs the Yen has led to further deterioration. The cross is now at 107.69-107.71 off another 80 pips and we are now at a two year plus low with the charts, frankly, looking very grim. We have now dropped from 115 to the current level in just a couple of weeks without a serious rebound and my comments yesterday of 101.68 being the bear target is looking attainable. On the plus side there is a huge amount of volume support at the current level going back three or four years and there is a good support between 107.00 and 107.40 which may help out.
Sterling remains the middle fulcrum, strong against the dollar weak against everything else. Housing on the continent is getting dearer and dearer for UK investors and with rates in Euroland remaining firm the huge outflow of property money to sunnier climes may be waning. As mentioned several times the sterling yen cross is looking problematical and a break and close below 221.00 may trigger some serious unwinding of longs. Carry returns are still very favourable (especially with the Sterling 3mth Libor so expensive) but the recent falls will be causing fewer and fewer adherents to get involved.
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Forex Spread Trading, 22 Nov 07
Today’s early action is quite muted with levels pretty much the same as last night. Dealers seem to be taking a bit of a breather this morning. I’d speculate that this state of affairs might continue for at least a little while into the morning and afternoon sessions.
The dollar is off the lows versus the Yen but some will be worrying about its inability to get back above the 109.15 support level (it failed there in the early hours this morning as well). The price is currently 108.75-108.77. It has to be said that the technical’s (and, lets be honest, the fundamental’s as well) do not bode well for the greenback. The obvious target is 101.65, the multi year low from Jan 2005. However there is a long way to go before (if ever) then. The US policy appears to be trade correction through currency depreciation, a time honoured strategy, but they risk importing a serious inflation problem. Of course with virtually all world commodities priced in the dollar this is likely to cause some serious continued volatility in the commodities sectors.
Cable is still hovering around the 2.06 level and seems for the moment to have reached a stable level. Depending on who you talk to the future is very murky indeed. Half of commentators say that the fundamental value for the pound should be around 1.7500. God knows where this would be vs the Euro and Yen. The other half are looking for a continued rally higher up to the 2.20 level. For the moment we can say that the short term trend is gently drifting upwards and we can see support at 2.0590 and resistance at 2.0695 and 2.0775. On the downside the 2.0450 level seems to be holding firm and we will need to close under here to get the bulls worried.
Forex Spread Trading, 21 Nov 07
On the FX markets the dollar, as already mentioned, is having a tough time of it with the USD / YEN hitting (almost exactly) the two year low at 108.79 in early action but has now achieved a sort of crabbing move higher to 109.07-109.09. If punters are expecting the support to hold they will be hoping for a better reaction through the day. Another attempt on this major support level may trigger substantial position liquidation.
Sterling has performed quite poorly overnight and is even giving up some of the gains against the dollar. This is showing up in the GBP / YEN cross rate which is over 200 pips lower this morning and like the dollar cross is threatening the really important support levels this time around 224.00. The Yen has been showing strong signs against all the majors in recent times as money pours out of the western blocks across to the Far Eastern currencies. Although the carry trade remains out there, it is difficult to see anyone with even a modicum of risk control trying to put on positions just at the moment.
Forex Spread Trading, 20 Nov 07
The FX markets actually did very little in the end yesterday. After the initial drop in the pound, today’s early morning action has reversed any loss. GBP/JPY is finding any level below 225 very difficult to hold onto and we seem to be forming a falling wedge pattern on the hourlys. A break above 226.60 could indicate further strength here but, of course, the pound has seen some serious gyrations in recent days/weeks/months and punters would be wise to keep their Stop Losses close.
Cable has also managed to push back above 2.0500 this morning up to 2.0545-2.0548. There is some resistance at 2.0550 which, if breached, may tempt further buying. It’s possible there would be more buying above 2.0620. The dollar has had a nice little bounce recently which has taken out many of the weak shorts so traders should not be surprised if we now recommence the weak dollar scenario. The real loser in this morning’s session has been the Yen but in reality we can just say that we are reversing yesterdays trading range.
Forex Spread Trading, 19 Nov 07
On the FX front the pound continues to look weak but it has been down here before on several occasions in the last few trading sessions. Forex markets continue to be very volatile as traders try to get a handle on the dollar. Whilst the general consensus is for dollar weakness the currency shows just enough tendency to make violent corrections to keep every one honest. This morning, as mentioned, sterling is the whipping boy dropping below 140 vs the euro once more and giving up much of Friday's hard won gains against the yen. With the interest rate crutch for the pound looking rather weaker the fear is that the current slump could continue into the middle term. Against the yen, the support in the low 220's is seen as crucial. Although we are some way from the low 220s at the moment, the extreme moves of recent days have shown that 1000 and 1500 pip move in a few trading sessions are become an increasingly common factor.
The Euro is getting ever more expensive and uncompetitive. Parts of the Eurozone are finding the international market place an ever darker place to be. A widget made in Frankfurt is 15% more expensive, in dollar terms, than at the start of the year and more than 40% more expensive than 5 years ago. This is squeezing margins ever tighter and will be causing high level political friction as jobs are exported to cheaper areas of the globe.
Forex Spread Trading, 16 Nov 07
In the forex spread betting market the £/$ the 2.0500 level has offered little support. Clearly the dollar bulls have paused for a rethink today after a 3.5% drop in cable. On the weekly chart a bit of a "shooting star" candlestick has formed which is usually an indication that the up trend has reached a top and certainly so far, this seems to be the case. Clients seem to have created a bit of a hedge now with the majority being buyers of gold (therefore bearish of the dollar), but short cable (so bullish of the dollar)! It just goes to show how uncertain everybody is during yet another turbulent week for all financial markets.
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Forex Spread Trading, 15 Nov 07
The dollar has recovered somewhat versus the yen and the 109 support has held well. The bounce though seems to be less that enthusiastic having stalled in the l11's. Punters will be watching to see if we are having one of the famed 'dead cat bounces' and whether after the initial buying fizzles out we return to bashing the buck.
The yen looks poised for further gains with dealers not able to regain support trading ranges in the last few days, but in truth, this has been the case many times in the last few months and every time somehow the momentum is lost.
Forex Spread Trading, 14 Nov 07
On the foreign currency front the pound is gamely trying to recoup some of the recent losses and this is being aided by the renewal of the dollar and yen weakness. Against the Yen the currency has had a 7% fall followed by a 3% rally in the last three days which must make finance directors for import/export companies very nervous indeed. If most companies work on 5-15% profit margins then movements of this nature make the potential profit/loss variations of a venture between the ink drying on the contract and getting the FX financing in place quite dramatic.
So the pound has bounced off the 2.05 support level mentioned yesterday and is now back above 2.08 at 2.0803-2.0806. $2.0815 is the last resistance level before 2.0900 and then up to the highs again so we can expect some selling at these levels from longs breathing a sigh of relief after the drops of Friday and Monday. There is small support at 2.0775 and 2.0745 but if we break below here we may get another of those cascade effects as dealers lose faith and pull out.
Versus the Euro the pound has recovered a bit and is now at 1.4190-1.4193 but again here we are seeing some selling as our punters look for further pound weakness. Today we have the BOE inflation report which is unlikely to make happy reading especially if you focus on the staple products (food and energy). This could give a boost to sterling. If the report is quite bearish it will remove any possibility of near term rate cuts and may raise the spectre of rate hikes!
Forex Spread Trading, 13 Nov 07
The FX spread betting markets were the big movers yesterday and they look like the place to be today. At one point Sterling hit 2.0520 yesterday vs the dollar, fully 6 1/2 cents off the highs of Friday (the biggest two day move in over 4 years). Today seems little different except in the opposite direction with Cable now bouncing up to 2.0666-2.0669 in morning action and punters are feeling quite happy having gone home long of the pound. There is actually some solid support around the 2.05 level which no doubt helped to stop the rot yesterday. Having said that above 2.0650 there is little to go for aside from a return up to 2.11. The markets moved higher and lower so quickly that there was no volume support/resistance building. If the pound is to remain at these elevated levels then it must spend a bit of time consolidating.
Of course against the Euro and Yen the story is not so nice after the massive support at 1.4240 failed yesterday. Bears are looking at this cross and will be licking their lips if there is no return to the trading range of past three month. Aside for interest rates the pound has not much to say for itself with an economy with much of the same structural problems as the dollar but with a much higher tax burden as well. The cost of Holidaying in Euroland is going to come as a nasty surprise come next summer.
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Forex Spread Trading, 12 Nov 07
Overnight trade saw some serious moves in the currency markets as the Yen has made a bid for power. Sterling whilst still strong versus the dollar is now flirting with the very serious support levels at 228.40 having managed to lose over 1000 pips in the last three trading sessions.
Over the past months the weakness in the dollar has all been European focused as the cross versus the Yen has stuck around 114 to 116. However trade in the latter half of last week certainly put paid to that as the Yen smashed through a series of support levels. It continues to drop lower, the current price forex spread sits at 110.22-110.24, the lowest since May last year and 109.00 is looming large. If the lines are breached then the bears will be hunting in even greater numbers looking for the 105.50 support and below here 102.00. The carry trades which had been holding on quite comfortably last Monday are now looking truly disastrous.
'Forex Broker' by DB, updated 23-Nov-07
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