Fixed Odds Trading w/c 2 March - Fixed Odds on Gold

Fixed Odds Trading w/c 2 March

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Financial Trading Week - 2 Mar 2009

It was another losing week for world stock markets, with the banks in the thick of it yet again. The Dow Jones Industrial average continued its losing streak with February closing as the sixth losing month in a row. Friday also marked the lowest closing level for the Dow since May 1997. The week started well in the UK with banks such as Barclays, Lloyds, and RBS outperforming expectations. Financials in the UK received a boost after RBS announced a restructure that will see it ‘hive off’ underperforming non-core areas. Unfortunately the euphoria didn’t last, and the moment swung against financials towards the end of the week. Lloyds confirmed its record losses incurred through HBOS on Friday, and was rewarded with a 23% drop in its share price on the day. It wasn’t the £10.8 bn loss that caused the deluge as that is old news. What concerned most investors was the speed of the decline in the HBOS loan book, and what this will mean when the banks come to report on next year’s earnings.

On Friday last week, US 4th Quarter GDP was revised down to -6.2%, the worse quarterly showing of a century. US markets revisited their recent lows with the S&P 500 breaching the November lows. In some ways, the worrying part of today’s sell off, is that it is in part due to US GDP being revised down more than expected. Like UK banks, this implies that analysts weren’t being pessimistic enough, and may not be so, even now.

The global economy is in decline and the news will continue to be negative for some time. Markets know this already, the crucial point is, how much of the slide is already priced into equity valuations. Optimists hope that it already is, so when the news flow comes, it will have limited impact. The pessimists will point to the fact that so far the economic slump has continued to accelerate quicker than many people predicted just 3 months ago.

Gold is normally seen as a safe haven in troubled times, but last week the precious metal retreated further from the $1,000 level to close the week at $941.72. Oil fared slightly better, closing the week at just below $40 a barrel.

The coming week’s economic calendar is dominated by interest rate decisions and the accompanying policy statements. On Tuesday, the bank of Canada is expected to cut rates to 0.5% from 1% and the MPC is expected to follow with exactly the same moves on Thursday. The ECB still have one of the highest rates in the west, but they too are expected to cut rates by 0.5% down to 1.5%. Aside from this, Wednesday’s ADP employment change and Friday’s non farm payroll could make this a volatile week.

This volatility could make a One Touch trade the more attractive option. The EUR/ USD was range bound for most of last week, so may be due a breakout, especially considering the packed economic calendar for the coming week.

The above comments do not constitute investment advice. The author(s), Clean Financial and any company mentioned do not accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.

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'Fixed Odds Trading w/c 2 March' by David Evans, updated 02-Mar-09

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