The trading range of the FTSE almost exactly matched the previous days efforts with the ultimate result also almost identical. The markets continue to wrestle with the 5970 to 6100 range and my comment about many traders waiting for one or the other to be defeated still remains in place. Yesterday’s action was an absolute boon to our clients who as mentioned in yesterdays comment have been heavy sellers at anything above 6050. The fall down to 5950 brought out heavy profit taking and then a strong reversal which many punters bought into. The net result was a lovely profit on the way down and an even better one on the way up.
We are still stuck just under the 6100 level this morning but the bulls seem to have the best of it at the moment. Every time we get up to this level it seems as though the break out is imminent only for traders to run out of steam.
Looking at the Forex Spread Betting markets the Pound actually managed a good day for a change as the Euro and Yen suffered. Of course the real winner was the US Dollar. Cable is now at the bottom of it recent range with dealers probing for any weakness below $1.9700. We have been here many times in recent weeks and each event has seen a bounce back up to $1.9950. The Financial Spreads accounts seem to be expecting a similar response this time and we are seeing buyers creeping into long Sterling positions.
The problem with much of the current currency levels is that there have been huge shifts in recent years and if there is a sea change in favour of the green back then there is a lot of space for it to recover.
Gold and Crude Oil have responded to the dollar strength and have retreated over the past few days (only a little in the case of Oil but significantly in Gold). There are considerable long positions still in many commodity markets and if the perception takes hold that the best has been seen then we could well see some really alarming price action in the coming months.
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Spread Trading, 24 Apr 08
The markets this morning are looking to be coming in slightly weaker after the short squeeze yesterday. The closing level was still not significantly above the resistance levels around 6065 and 6080 mentioned yesterday. A break below 5980 or above 6100 is required to indicate the next direction.
Today sees the opening FTSE spread around 30 points lower at 6050 and it looks like the Capital Spread Account holders are sellers yet again. As they have continued to be every time we have been close to the 6050 level over the past six or seven trading sessions.
Sterling has also been rather cuddly towards our clients. The Cable range between $1.9700 and $2.0000 was reconfirmed yet again with yesterdays rejection of the highs around $1.9975. The GBP / USD spread is now down at $1.9750 - $1.9753 and shorts are quietly taking their profits and looking for an indication that the reverse might happen today.
Gold and Oil appear to be on opposite tracks at the moment as one surges ever higher and the other continues to struggle to maintain value. In a resource hungry situation, as we have at the moment, the price of a product that requires continuous renewal (Oil, Softs etc) is likely to be far more attractive than one that for all intents and purposes is eternal (Gold, Silver etc).
Only in times of financial turmoil will the attraction of Gold assert itself and with the end game in sight for the banks (with rights issues etc) there is a possibility that the Yellow Metal might just go all the way back from whence it came. Mind you that’s only a possibility as another crisis may well be around the corner.
Brent Crude Oil is now at $116.50 (another all time high) but we will need to get through the $116.70 level which has been something of a barrier for the last three days. There was an attempt at a small pull back yesterday, as there have been on odd occasions over the past three weeks, but once more the buyers beat off the weakness with some ease after the inventories number in the States disappointed.
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Spread Trading, 23 Apr 08
Markets today are a bit more optimistic than was forecast late last night. The closing quote for the FTSE 100 at 9pm was down at around 6000 after the US fell in late trading. But this morning the Far East has held steady and valuations have perked up.
The FTSE 100 spread is now at 6060 - 6061 and we continue to hammer, for the sixth day in a row, at the resistance levels between 6065 and 6075. The price action is tightening up which indicates (normally) that a price spike out is on the cards. Whether this move is to the upside or down only time will tell but a close below 5985 or above 6075 may well be the trigger.
Looking at the FX markets the pound continues to oscillate between £1.9700 and £2.0000. This morning Sterling is showing weakness from the yesterdays attempt to get back above the 2 dollar mark. With little information to go on at the moment short-term punters are playing the aforementioned range with the position takers sitting on their hands awaiting, as with the FTSE, a break out.
Crude Oil continues to power higher and with the news that the emerging economies have overtaken the US as the biggest users of the black stuff it is not hard to speculate that markets will take us ever higher.
Spread Trading, 22 Apr 08
Opening levels this morning are looking a tad on the nervous side after the Far East ignored the strength in the US and Europe and retreated from seven week highs.
The FTSE failed yesterday to make any attempt at the 6100 resistance and, in fact, failed to break convincingly above 6080. Dealers working from the long side will now be anxiously watching the screens after four days in a row of hammering at the mid to high 6000’s failed to achieve a breakthrough. Banks will almost certainly be marked down this morning but this might be counteracted by the oil and mining sector (again). The initial trading is seeing some buying coming in and the opening level at around 6020 seems to have been rejected.
Bradford and Bingley has given a better trading statement than expected this morning but this is against the background of the shares closing, yesterday, at their worst level for...Err actually since they floated in 2000! The bank appears to have few problems, enough cash for the foreseeable future and, unless they are lying, a healthy demand for their product. I am not sure what the big investors are seeing but the current values at 164p look rather extreme even to a bank bear like myself.
Gold continues to look weak as other commodities take up the reins but we are still very much looking towards the dollar for inspiration. Any strength or weakness from the greenback is likely to translate directly into Gold Prices.
Oil...Going up, staying up, staying painful. Over 100 quid to fill up my gas guzzler the other night. Will have to raid the kiddies piggy bank.
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Spread Trading, 21 Apr 08
The Markets today are pushing for the upside once more and the FTSE is pressing through the resistance between 6065 to 6075 mentioned last week and there is the potential for an early move on the top of the trading range at just above 6100.
This marks the forth attempt this year to get above (and stay above) 6100. There will be a number of bigger players who have been sitting on the sidelines for some considerable time who may well become more active if the bearish sentiment shows signs of turning neutral to positive. The current FTSE 100 spread is 6075-6076 and clients are (sorry to say) heavy sellers up here.
On the currency front the dollar, euro, pound and yen all seem reasonably content with the current level. Although, it must be admitted that the trading sessions are getting much more fractured. For the last month there have been as many up days on the various crosses as down days. That could be taken as an indication that the year long dollar fall could (just could) be petering out.
USD/EUR has been bashing around between $1.56 and $1.59 for a month with no indication of whether the bears or the bulls are getting the upper hand. Although the trend is still very gently euro positive. At the current USD/EUR spread of $1.5832 - $1.5834 we are slap in the middle of the current trading range.
Against the Yen the dollar spread betting market is back at the levels of this time last month at ¥103.69 - ¥103.71. In the mean time it managed to fall all the way to ¥95.75. It has been this recovery from the lows that has caused the fallout in Gold as Far East valuations have slipped. The JPY / USD cross is eying the ¥105.00 level as the major resistance as this was where it held up on the way down.
Crude Oil remains tight with prices at all time highs (and seemingly making new ones every day). It is tempting to suggest that at current levels the sheer expense should have its own braking effect. Fewer and fewer people and companies will be able to maintain consumption levels at these prices which should (?? Perhaps) reduce demand enough to create a counter move. The news that hedge funds are big buyers probably means the exact opposite. They would only let this type of information leak out if they were long and looking to get out.
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Spread Trading, 18 Apr 08
Act 1 - Scene 1 - 10 Downing Street
Seated - Our Gordon
Enter stage left - ‘motley crew’
Fred the Shred (for it is he) “Buddy can you spare a dime”
Motley Crew “coz, its all your fault, all your fault, your fault”
Our Gordon. “Come unto me with your woes and Merv the Swerve shall deliver ye from all evil”
Merv (enter stage right dressed as Fairy Godmother) “errrr...does he mean me?”
All. “Yes!”
Merv “oh! All right, just so long as everyone realises that I was pushed. In return I shall demand a boon. Thou shalst go unto your shareholders and ye shall don sackcloth and ye shall say unto them ‘Forgive us our sins, for we repent of our foolish ways and errr.. can we have some dosh?…please’”
Scene 2
The loosening of the Bank of England coffers seems to have come at a price. RBS has now revealed its requirements for anything between £5bn and £12bn of fresh capital (a nice imprecise number, what is seven billion between friends?). Whilst the banking system is in something of a quandary over the frozen credit markets this type of sudden admission of weakness is unlikely to improve confidence. The natural instinct of many investors will be ‘Ok, that’s one down, what about all the others?’
Royal Bank of Scotland is, in reality, a special case due to the cash requirement in its purchase of ABN in association with Fortis and Santander. It was difficult to find a single person who agreed with Sir Fred’s valuation of the Dutch unit (although we have to assume that the Fortis and Santander boards were similarly blinded). It is hard to come to any conclusion other competition with Barclays. If they want it then we want it!
This is not serious banking and smacks of hubris at shareholders expense. RBS shares missed out on virtually the entire 2003 to 2007 rally but has participated enthusiastically in the ‘08 fall. The share price has now, effectively, been stagnant for ten long years. This includes picking up Nat West for a song back in 2000. However the senior management are still very much in place and showing no signs of falling on their swords. Sir Fred’s reputation as a driver of value seems to ring very hollow, where were the synergy savings? The investment bank growth? etc. The stock is now in danger of falling into the Lloyds bank trap of promising high dividend returns in exchange for low growth.
The initial reaction to the announcement seems to be one of relief as investors breathe out and say ‘finally’ or similar words (!) as the speculation will grow that this might be the beginning of the end of the crisis. RBS stock is modestly up about 3% this morning, as is Barclays and Alliance & Leicester.
Even so I find this reaction rather surprising.
The amount of money that is being requested is vast (at a time when cash is hard to come by) and you have to assume that the rights issue will be made at a substantial discount to current valuation (new investors always get a better deal). This is hardly likely to come as a ‘good bargain’ for current holders of bank stock. Not only that, but the news yesterday that financial institutions actually requested three times the Bank of England offering of £17 Billion in short term money does not exactly smack of a money market that is coming out of its problems.
The hunt will now go on for the next unit to go cap in hand to its shareholders or, as per the US model, sell a slug off to a quasi government Middle or Far East investment vehicle.
It is easy to write negative comment, words are ten a penny, but it would seem to me that the banking drama has some way to go before a line can be drawn in the sand and historians are able to write...”this was the day that the crisis ended”.
Scene 3 - A city dealing room
All - “Sell!”
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Spread Trading, 17 Apr 08
As we have seen, the near term effect of the Bank of England announcement has been a big rally in the markets as the relief has taken its course and the senior index is now back above 6000 once again. The close above the 6000 mark was good to see as this is the first requirement to break the current weakness but the next two levels at 6060 to 75 and 6100 are more important. This move marks the forth attempt since the turn of the year to regain the higher trading ranges but it must be pointed out that without the Mining sector contribution the index would be significantly lower.
The continued rise in the price of crude oil and food must now be worrying policy makers across the globe.
In the west we grumble and pay up, tightening our belts another notch, for others the scenario is not so mild. Just a short time ago the average family in the UK spent upwards of 40% of their wage on food and heating. Now the level is below 20%. In many nations the level is closer to 80%! A doubling, tripling, quadrupling of fuel, corn, rice etc spells disaster. The various governments do their best with subsidies but there is a limit to what their treasury coffers can do.
If the price of many staple products does not fall from current levels the implications for growth and stability is not good. As governments run out of money so the food and fuel will disappear and the consequences will be dire.
Brent crude oil is now above $112 and there is no slackening of demand. A small pull back yesterday afternoon was swiftly smashed into submission and the price went from £1.50 cents down to close £1.10 cents up. As we are in uncharted territory at the moment all we can do is speculate as to how far things will go. As always they will probably go much further than anyone suspects. I, personally, hope not but fear so.
FX markets are once again buying the Euro. Sterling has once again (yawn) hit an all time low but has at least stopped versus the other majors. At some point the elastic band of Euro strength will reach its zenith but that day is not yet. As the ECB ponders its intentions the recent French inflation numbers will not have them reaching for the rate cutting axe. Whilst I am not as dismissive of official CPI numbers as some, I also find it difficult to explain away the UK’s official rate of 2.5% against France’s 3.5% when our currency has fallen 20% versus theirs. The BOE is now caught between a rock and a hard place. Rising inflation requiring high rates, low growth requiring easing.
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Spread Trading, 16 Apr 08
The markets seemed to have perked up somewhat this week as investors boldly try and push the FTSE back towards the 6000 mark. The level is meaningless with regards to valuations but for some reason it seems to be either a barrier to bulls when we’re below it or it’s a support when we’re above it. The last few weeks have shown that not only is 6000 a bit of a magic number for the FTSE 100, but the market is so nervous that resistance to push above it concertedly can clearly be seen.
In the absence of any really bad news this morning and a good positive move higher in America yesterday and Asia overnight the UK market is playing catch up and we’re calling the FTSE spread to open around 5960. Short and medium term bulls are asking themselves whether a low has been marked for the time being and it would certainly seem to be the case as the attempt to test lows at the end of last week and on Monday look to have been rather half hearted. However, Financial Spreads accounts are more bearish of the UK at the moment and have been selling into this strength, perhaps thinking that 6000 will once again prove a big hurdle. It’s not often that I look at the client positions on the global indices to see that there is a really mixed bag with bulls of US tech shares, a flat US blue chip equities book and FTSE bears. Too often it’s the case that clients have a one way view across all the indices but it just goes to show that there is a real mixed feeling about things at the moment.
There’s little in the way of economic data today, but interestingly last night’s release of the FOMC minutes gave a very interesting reading. A few members of the committee called for a smaller cut than the 0.75% the Fed made on 18th March. It seems that, as with our clients, even the Fed is finding it difficult to find common ground to try and steer their economy out of trouble. With Crude Oil prices hitting yet another record high overnight the majority of the Fed are brushing the inflation problem under the carpet for the time being. It’s easy to see now why the UK’s central bank is so reluctant to cut rates when inflation shows no signs of abating.
Our (June) Brent Crude Oil spread is currently $111.34 - £111.39 (note that this market closes on 15 May 2008)
Dollar weakness continues to be the theme in currency markets with the Euro around $1.5840 and looking like it wants to test record highs of $1.5900. Even Sterling is a little stronger against the Dollar bouncing off the support mentioned yesterday. It looks like it’s fighting hard against the euro too. EU countries must be praying for the trend to change as their currency has got so expensive that they’ll really be starting to feel the pinch. But when you look at the charts it’s difficult to see where the current bull run will end.
Gold is still hovering around the $930 mark this morning with the Gold Rolling Daily spread betting market at $929.3 - $929.8.
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Spread Trading, 15 Apr 08
The FTSE 100 is opening around 50 points up on, well, nothing very much just the normal Mining and Oil rallies! The Far East managed to stop yesterday’s rot but the Hang Seng and Nikkei did not exactly roar away this morning...both indices recorded small gains.
On the currency front the pound is suffering badly with the crosses falling against all the majors (even the dollar). We are now at yet another all time low vs the Euro (I should know as I have just returned from Spain and the prices are now eye-watering). Effectively every asset in the UK has been devalued by 20% since October last year against European valuations. If you couple in growth slowdowns, inflation and possible house price falls the outlook is decidedly nerve wracking.
Cable is back down at its support levels around £1.97 and if we close below here more sellers may be tempted to set up shorts. Over the past week’s trading sessions the market has bounced off the £1.9650 to £1.9700 level several times but traders continue to try to press the issue.
Vs the Euro, as mentioned, we are at all time lows...the chart is frankly appalling and whilst I am not exactly a sterling bull this level of devaluation appears well overdone. For many nations within the Euro bloc the high levels of their currency will be spelling DOOM in very big letters. The European Central Bank will almost certainly come under very strong pressure to cut rates and now that Berlusconi has been re-elected the doves may gain a very powerful (if at times incoherent) ally.
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Spread Trading, 14 Apr 08
After a week-end of golf and football where it was possible to take your mind off the dire situation in the financial markets it seems like it's business as usual. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are set to unearth further losses this week proving that we're still yet to have heard the last of write-downs. Billions more dollars are due to knock US banking profits for six and uncertainty is growing as not even the banks know exactly much more of their balance sheets have been depleted by. Such was the abuse and miss-selling of these mortgage backed securities that the markets are set for another turbulent few weeks.
Swathes of job losses in the financial sector both in the US and here are expected as the banks count the cost of their complacency. While many heads continue to role due to the lack of proper risk management, this is exactly the area that will receive the most attention as the financial markets evolve in order to avoid another such crisis from happening. Just as legal and compliance departments have become a vital and strategic part of the City since the increase of regulation, risk management will require serious expertise as the markets recover and more importantly, confidence is restored.
All this was the centre of discussions at the meeting of the G7 finance ministers this weekend. It's difficult to see what was achieved from all the talk apart from a few calls for further regulation. Isn't it clear yet that even with as much regulation as possible, this a similar crises will never be avoidable and it is the responsibility of the top brass to prevent such things from happening? They are the ones who are answerable to the shareholders and should ultimately pay the price.
The FTSE 100 spread this morning has been spot on coming in to open 50 points lower around the 5845 mark. The market wasn't helped by a weak close from US markets on Friday evening and a move lower by Asian markets over night. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell as much as 3% and in Shanghai stocks suffered a 5.5% move into the red. The FTSE book is flattening out a little with clients having been heavily short all of last weak and a few people are closing out of their positions for a profit this morning.
Miners and banks are feeling the brunt of selling and Bradford & Bingley is back in the headlines as they try to placate investors concerns that they do not need to raise new capital with a rights issue.
The dollar has benefited from the comments made by G7 finance ministers who voiced their concern over excessive currency fluctuations but already the Euro has recovered from its overnight lows of $1.5670 back to the $1.5770 mark. In the absence of taking any action the market has shrugged off their comments as the fundamentals of a weaker dollar remain in place.
As a result, Gold is also lower this morning around $921. Bullion actually hit a low of $914 in the Asian session. The dollar's little recovery against all the other majors has led to a little pressure on metal prices but the feeling in the market is that the trend is not over.
Crude Oil hit a new high after a drop in inventories and news that OPEC has sneakily cut production. The Energy Information Administration warned that the oil market was tight and that prices would average over $100 a barrel this year. Brent Crude finished the week at $107.85, a rise of $3.
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Financial Trading April 2008' by DB, updated 25-Apr-08
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