Financial Spread Betting June 2008
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A regular spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads.
For the latest spread trading update from Simon Denham click here.
Spread Trading, 6 Jun 08
Today will see the next test with the Non-Farm Payroll number out of the States at 13.30 this afternoon. The expectation is for the number to come in at negative 60k. However with a new scent of confidence around even a poor number may be taken in the markets stride. In the meantime we do not expect much activity in the morning session after the opening levels are secured. The call on the FTSE 100 is for a rally to around 6025, 30 points higher than the close yesterday. The support at 5950 remains in place even though we traded lower intraday.
The pound was dragged a little in the Euros’ wake yesterday but even so lost over a Euro cent in the post Trichet move. The GBP / USD spread is currently at $1.9581 - $1.9584 this morning and is still at the lower end of the recent trading ranges. Any clients who bought into the early weakness yesterday are making a tidy little profit and are now selling anything approaching $1.9600. Major support remains down at $1.9370 and major resistance at $1.9800, within these two levels, day-traders are playing the ranges.
In the commodities markets the story is once more all about energy with Heating Oil, Gas and Crude all shooting higher in yesterday’s session. Traders will be nervous (understandably) after the dramatic failure of the attempt to move lower and we are now back in the $126 to $129 trading range of last week. There appeared to be little reason for the shift higher. The probability is that it was more to do with weak short positions being squeezed throughout the trading session.
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Spread Trading, 5 Jun 08
Sitting with my head dealer yesterday afternoon we were concerned about the closing level on the FTSE. A break and close below 5940 would have us scurrying for cover as technically this is quite a substantial support level. Trading yesterday went below this level several times but by the close we had bounced once more and were sitting (if not pretty) at least still in the sunshine. This morning sees more early weakness after the US drifted in late action but Capital Spreads clients seem confident that a new bear phase can be avoided and we have seen quite substantial buying below 6000.
Oil broke below the $126 support level I mentioned a few days ago and has fulfilled the prediction made at the time of following through on any break. This morning we are way down with the Brent Crude Oil spread (July) at ‘only’ $121.70 - $121.75.
The banking sector took it on the nose once again yesterday and HBOS is now 55p below the LOWEST point on the day of the bear rumour which caused so many headlines (and an FSA investigation) back in March. Barclays has experienced nineteen negative trading sessions in the last twenty and you could now pick up Bradford and Bingley for …well, not very much. At some point investors will come in with their buying boots on (Barclays is yielding 10%) but probably not just yet.
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Spread Trading, 4 Jun 08
Today’s markets are starting off on the weaker side after yesterday’s late spike took the FTSE up to 6055. With metals and oil having a rare weak session last night the golden boys of the index (mining and oil) might struggle on the off this morning and the call is for the senior index to come in 30 points lower at 6025.
IG Index have announced sales increased by more than 50% in the year which should have a massive boost to the bottom line.
Kingfisher have managed to beat analysts expectations with fewer promotions and sharp cost cutting leading to a profit of £96m well above analysts expectations of £83m. But it is interesting to note that not everyone is booming away in China. Some store sales have slumped 15% over the past year leading to the company announce closures of stores. Not exactly what you would expect from one of the worlds fastest growing economies.
Gold is struggling every time a new bull phase is attempted and the last two moves higher have failed to break above previous highs. The gold spread is now at $878.5 - $879.0 and, chartwise, is looking fragile for a move below $877. There is support at $863 and $850 but if these are breached on a close this may open the market for a move below the $800 level.
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Spread Trading, 3 Jun 08
Not a good start to the day as virtually every index is called lower and the sentiment appears to be dragging by the day. This might be a good moment to put a small toe in the water as everything seems so grim it is almost unreal.
Last night after the Dow Jones had managed to rebound from its lows their was a feeling that possibly we might be in for a bit of bounce in Europe but the tidal wave of bad banking news shows no signs of abating as analysts fall over themselves to slash banking price targets and the S&P rating agency continue to do their 'shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted' act and have put a swathe of top tier US banks on Credit watch.
The role of the rating agencies in the debacle of the last year should be the subject of some form of investigation. Investors are entitled to believe that, for the fees S&P, Moody and Finch, extract that the agencies should have done their home work on the sub prime debt liabilities. To give such obviously weak debt a AAA rating smacks of almost criminal negligence. Triple A ratings should only be given to debt about which there is almost no chance of a downgrade let alone a default (we are talking solid Sovereign states such as Germany, France, the US and the UK). For debt to go from AAA to worthless in six months should just not be possible without a war or major catastrophe. The whole thing smacks of 'the wool being pulled over the eyes' of rating staff who were probably not sufficiently trained to deal with some of the complex structures involved. For the investors who rely on such grading (even within bank investment arms) the consequences have been dire.
Bradford and Bingley look to be opening lower again after it has emerged that they were contractually bound to purchase $2.5bn mortgage debt from the US (nice timing guys) but as we keep being told that this is no Northern Rock the value of the stock looks bargain basement stuff...any buyers? No, I thought not. Situations such as this are more of the wait and see variety when the economy turns onto a more stable footing there will probably be time enough to get involved and you never know it may be a target for acquisition a few years down the line. Morgan Stanley have moved their target from 100p (well done guys, good call) to 50p below the right issue level.
Ryanair came in pretty much on the button with a 4th qtr loss after write down of the Aer Lingus stake. Unfortunately the company forecast for the year 2008/2009 is for no profit at all as they try to adjust price expectations for their army of cheap flyers to levels commensurate with $130 a barrel. Whilst I believe that Oil will fall to more sustainable levels, that is just a belief. Equity must price in the situation as we see it. There is no guarantee that oil will fall and in that scenario the stock could be under long term pressure.
Slightly negative I know but investors must remember that the point to buy is not when everything is at its worst it is when you can see some definable point in the future that things may be about to get better. Everything is darker just before the dawn…the problem is buying into false dawns.
Crude Oil is looking to being stuck between $126 and $129 (roughly) with the futures trading between these levels at least once or twice a day. Markets tightened up yesterday closing at the opening price and this is often a signal of a break out in one direction or the other. The best advice is to steer clear of the market but if you must trade either use the ranges mentioned earlier with stops on a trade below $125.50 and above $129.50 or wait for a closing breakout and then trade in the direction indicated.
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Spread Trading, 2 Jun 08
The week ahead will probably focus on Thursday as the Bank of England and European Central Bank gird their loins once more in the face of the inflationary barbarians on one hand and the gremlins of recession on the other.
In the UK the likelihood is for another ‘wait and see’ statement as commodity price inflation starts to wheedle its way in to the overall data. However the state of the overall economy seems to be crumbling by the day and the cries for some relief from the MPC are likely to grow louder as we approach the moment of decision.
Before then we have the joy of another banking crisis to get through. Normally I will defend the banking sector in the city against most of the slings from the Forth Estate as I often feel that much of what is written is ill informed and based on the twenty-twenty vision afforded to everyone after an event has happened.
However, in the case of Bradford and Bingley, this is very difficult indeed.
Steven Crenshaw has fallen on his sword through the old Kremlin ‘ill health’ route but the never ending stream of ‘good’ news to come from the board over the past six to nine months has now been shown to be, shall we say, rather wide of the mark. Absolutely categorical statements that the bank was fully funded through to 2009 and that there would be no rights issue, right up to just a couple of days before the issue was announced, would in many cases have drawn the attention of PC Plod.
UBS and Citigroup having underwritten the issue just a few weeks ago were presumably also kept in the dark as to the imminent profit warning and the fact that they have now been ‘let out jail free’ by B&B probably has much to do with legal threats to the board. The whole board looks to be an untenable situation. First they denied what was the truth then, plainly to the detriment of shareholders, they have let the underwriter of a £300m rights issue at 82p off in favour of a private equity investment at 50p and another rights issue at a lower price. If underwriters can just ‘walk away’ what is the point of paying them.
I can see Mssrs Sue, Grabbit and Runne being involved in this one for some considerable time. Investors have effectively been kept in the dark.
Monday sees little of interest aside from the above with the main concern being in the May Manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) data and the April Mortgage Lending numbers both out at 9.30. Neither is expected to make for happy reading and it would be a brave man to buy into them just at the moment.
Tuesday will have slightly more to take in with Michael O’Leary, never a wilting flower at the best of times, bringing Ryanair’s 2007/08 numbers to the market. Costs are going through the roof just as clients are running out of money. Even the ‘cheap’ flight to Majevafurtsbon is getting beyond the purses of many but Ryanair has seen it before and will no doubt see it again. The company is cash rich and has a lower cost base than most competitors (an amazing ability to grow to huge size whilst retaining the ‘small company’ emphasis on costs) which should stand it in good stead in the coming years.
United Utilities also come with their annual numbers and will presumably be showing why when times get tough, bog standard critical services is the place to be. Profits are likely to be much the same as last year (maybe a bit higher on the sale of its Electricity unit last year). Of more interest might be Hogg Robinson (HRG) the corporate travel company. Business travel and expenditure is generally the first sector to get cut in a downturn and investors will be looking for some insight.
Late on we will see the Factory Orders numbers from the US expected to be minus 0.1% as even the weak dollar seems to be unable to kick start order levels.
Wednesday will see all eyes on Kingfisher (B&Q to you and me) as the never ending car crash that is their share valuation continues unabated. The Stock completely missed out on the 2003 to 2007 market rally and has been bumbling around on the bottom of the range between 120 and 140p for all of 2008. A truly appalling May Bank holiday weather story, normally one of the better sales stories, will not have helped and Profits are expected to be some 8-10% weaker.
On the spread betting front, IG Index give their latest trading statement and with market volatility continuing investors will be hoping for further good news.
US oil inventories at 15.30 will be widely watched once more and we can expect extreme volatility in their aftermath.
Thursday and on to the main event, the MPC will be the main show in town with markets expected to be very quiet in the morning as we all await their prognostications.
In the morning Wm Morrison will have given their latest update which is likely to show that the Supermarkets continue to sweep all before them. Halfords, who seem to trade in their own little bubble, are also expected to be robust in the face of high street Armageddon. On the other extreme WH Smith are not so sanguine with sales forecast to fall again as cost cutting remains the name of the game. Margins are being squeezed by the board so the overall returns may be rather better than previous numbers.
Friday sees the dreaded Non Farm Payroll number form the US which will influence markets all the way up till the 13.30 release. Expected to come in on the weaker side at minus 60k this number has been the numero uno of US data releases for many years but might now be slipping a bit in the Pantheon of statistics. Temporarily housing and crude oil associated numbers are topping the list of market moving information and are likely to remain of fascination for a while to come. At 15.00 we will see the inventory numbers which are expected to come in at plus 0.4%. Inventories are always a difficult one to assess as you are never sure (in these days of ‘just in time’ production) whether an increase indicates unsold stock or a build for future delivery expectations. Overall the underlying sentiment will probably dictate how the market takes whatever the number eventually says.
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Spread Trading, 30 May 08
In the markets the FTSE made a brave attempt to get above 6120 yesterday but the effort final proved too much and, as the banks sank into ever lower valuations, dealers eventually sold us back down pretty much our starting point. On the other hand the support level at 6050 held pretty well. The attraction of this region between 6050 and 6090 over the past few months has been marked. A close below the support might indicate a return to a bearish mood but dealers have been doing very nicely over the past few days just trading the ranges.
Banking stock is looking ever more disastrous. Bradford and Bingley is now only a short sneeze away from its Right Issue level at 82p and although the issue is underwritten by UBS and Citigroup (who must at the time have thought it was money for old rope) the stock is being rightly hammered for the Boards disingenuous comments over the past few months. “Fully funded till 2009” was the comment a couple of months ago. Outright denial of the Rights Issue rumours just two days prior to the announcement…have left the Chairman and the CEO in a very dodgy position. B&B is now valued at less than £600m which must call into question its very existence. It would only take one pessimistic BBC news story to have the depositor lines going round the block (aka Northern Rock) once more.
Crude Oil did the almost exact opposite of Wednesday moving sharply higher on the Inventories numbers showing an almost 9m barrel drop in storage before late news on consumption numbers helped it to fall quickly back down. We bounced off the $126 level yet again, as we had on numerous occasions on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the sentiment by the close was still on the weak side with Brent July finally expiring at $126.80 having traded a $6 range during the day.
Having tempted the eternal Gold bulls into buying on its recent rally up to $935 bucks the commodity fell out of favour big time and finished the day down at $878. All eyes will be on the major long term trend line support at $866 which will tempt further buying if it looks like holding. On a break the chartists will be going for prices a good deal lower than these with $780 and $675 being mooted.
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Spread Trading, 29 May 08
Markets today look to be on the up after the Far East rallied strongly after the US Durable Goods number came in strongly positive at up 2.5% rather than the small 0.5% decline that was expected. However the sentiment and headlines in the UK will probably be more affected by the announcement from Nationwide that house prices dropped 2.5% in just one month, making for a 4.4% decline over the year.
The FTSE 100 is expected to open around 30 pips higher at close to 6100 and bulls will be hoping for a test of the short term trend resistance at 6110 in early action. The index had a series of attempts to break below 6050 over the past few days but all were easily beaten off.
On the Forex front the dollar is having one of its better starts against all the majors and it would be a brave man to start betting heavily against it recovering some of its longer term losses. If the economy does turn itself around and the Fed starts to think in terms of rate hikes rather than cuts (admittedly, probably early next year at the earliest but dealers like to forestall these things) then we could see some sharp shifts higher in the greenback.
Crude Oil had a whole series of attempts at breaking below £126 but was already bouncing before the weak inventory numbers helped it out. The price went from $3 down to $2.5 up at the close which just about sums up the volatility in this market at the moment.
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Spread Trading, 28 May 08
Quite an interesting day yesterday on the markets with Crude Oil slumping to...errr...just $128, Gold dropping $20 creating, one might have hoped, an opportunity for a small rally elsewhere. Unfortunately nobody was buying this small piece of good news and the world’s indices and currencies did, well in the end, pretty much nothing at all.
Today looks to be rather dull as well with most indices called a tad higher. British Energy announced a drop in earnings by some 28% after plant closures affected revenue but this is unlikely to dampen the ardour of the, rumoured, trio of suitors looking to have their evil way with her.
Burberry have shown yet again that if you insult the intelligence of people pockets and sell vastly inflated goods on a ‘lifestyle’ ticket you can still make huge amounts of wonga. Sales in Europe and the Americas were up a staggering 26%. One wonders how well they would have done in a booming economic cycle! The profits of £196m on sales of £995m shows a staggering profit margin of 20%.
Topps Tiles on the other end of the spectrum has actually done rather well in the circumstances. In an environment of seriously reduced building spend like for like sales only dropped 0.9% and although there will undoubtedly be difficult times ahead the shares look to have been sold down rather too aggressively.
We will await the Durable Goods numbers from the States this afternoon before any real action will probably occur. Most commentators expect a bad figure so we may get a small relief rally if it is not as awful as expected!
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Spread Trading, 27 May 08
The week ahead...or should I more accurately say the ‘short four dayer’.
There is quite a bit of data out this week with Vodaphone starting us off today and Brewin Dolphin (the stock broker) bringing up the rear on Friday, neatly breaking the unwritten rule of not reporting on a Friday.
Tuesday sees the aforementioned Vodafone releasing better than expected numbers but this will be over shadowed by Mr Sarin’s announcement that he will be leaving in July. One assumes that a replacement has already been identified otherwise it does not give the head-hunters long to earn their money.
The company has reported profits of some £13.2bn which will come as some relief to Alistair Darling whose take on this will be eye watering.
Aveva (another of those companies that got a PR company to change their name to something ‘dynamic’) have brought in the bacon with a 70% increase in net revenue to £47.9m. This is a company that actually does something (a rarity in the UK) and does it rather well. The stock is up over 20% this year! No mean feat in the current environment.
At 09.30 we get the BBA April new home loans number which is not expected to be exactly boom-time reading. Last month came in at £35.4bn but it is rather difficult sometimes to equate one month against another as spring tends to bring the buyers out in force so whilst we can foresee a number some way to the south of the March number do not be surprised if it is stronger than the gloom mongers would have it.
In the States we have swathe of data mainly concerning housing at 14.00 and 15.00. The important numbers will be the House sales at 15.00 which are expected to see another decline MOM by 0.6%. Obviously the bottom has not yet been reached in the Realtor sector Stateside.
Wednesday, British Energy, another company on the up and up, report full year earnings but these will be submerged under analysts clamouring for some news on whether the takeover speculation has any legs. Another stock up big time on the year (34%) and the way of the commodity markets are these days you would not bet against another 34% for the rest of the year.
Burberry and Topps Tiles also report representing just about the most diametrically opposite ends of the high street as it is possible to imagine. Unfortunately for Topps Tiles the numbers are likely to be just as divergent, with Burberry showing that the old saying “nobody lost money underestimating the taste of the public” is alive and well today whilst Topps struggle in the harsh fall out from the credit crunch.
A light day on the economic front with only the Durable Goods Orders number out from the US at 13.30. These are forecast to come in at down 1.5% but it is always a difficult figure as a couple of Boeings can make a huge difference.
Thursday sees Black Leisure report on the high street front line and we may get a better indication over discretionary spending habits from here rather than from the more essential spending made at M&S and Tesco. Man Group, sitting rather smugly after dumping MF Global onto an unwary market last year, is likely to report a surge in revenue to around £1.95bn. The woes of its offloaded broking unit will not affect the back slapping that this result will engender.
Antofagasta will release first quarter numbers and analysts will be waiting to see whether the soaring copper prices have had the desired effect. Unfortunately for the company costs seem to be rising faster than the price of their principal product (difficult to understand I know) so investors will be hoping for some topping out on the expenditure side.
Numbers out today include the Nationwide house price index and as the British obsession with housing shows no signs of abating these will no doubt be the focus of the late night news programmes. There are about three or four different housing indices and they all give widely differing numbers so this one can probably be taken with a pinch of salt as well. Anyway, YOY is expected to come in at minus 2.1% which when you add in wage inflation is some 5.5% down on affordability. In the US we will get the GDP numbers at 13.30 and, far from a recession, these are forecast to see around 0.9% growth for the first qtr. Not stellar but better than many European nations.
End of the week brings just a couple of small corporate numbers but a whole swathe of US data. The important ones are the Chicago Purchasing and the University of Michigan Confidence figures. These numbers are currently way down in the dumps so it is unlikely that they will get worse (there is only so much bad news that can filter into the confidence levels). We expect 48.5 from Chicago and 59.5 from Michigan. If these do come in under here then we may see a late market slump in the UK.
Oh and to go with the nationwide numbers we have the HBOS house price index expected sometime this week and expected to come in at minus 1.3%. Obviously looking at different houses than Nationwide!
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For the latest spread trading update from Simon Denham click here.
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Financial Spread Betting June 2008' by DB, updated 06-Jun-08
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