Financial Spread Bets April 2008
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A regular spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads.
For the latest spread trading update from Simon Denham click here.
Spread Trading, 11 Apr 08
So we got the cut that we were all hoping for but one can’t help think that the bank could have done more. There were certainly plenty of people hoping for a cut of 50 basis points to bring rates down to under 5%. However, as we’ve come to learn from our interest rate setters, they will rarely surprise us with an unexpected bit of relief. Perhaps half a percent would have put the cat amongst the pigeons but the fact remains that the global economy is slowing, UK growth is slowing, the housing market is stumbling, people are being laid off and consumers are keeping their money (what little they have left) in their pocket. A raft of brave mortgage lenders were quick to announce that they would pass on this quarter percent cut to their borrowers on a variable rate, but the majority of people with mortgages are on fixed rates and they’ve just seen them go up!
One of the few things Captain Darling can crow about at the G7 finance meeting today is that Libor (the rate at which banks lend to each other) has finally drifted a little lower. However there are still plenty of calls for more aggressive action from Mervyn and his merry gang of fiscal policy makers. Only time will tell whether they should have acted sooner and with greater cuts. The benefit of hindsight suggests that rates probably went too high when the reached their recent peak of 5.75%.
The themes of this column haven’t been particularly upbeat this week and considering that there has been such little movement in the markets, it’s very unlikely anyone will want to remember it in a hurry. Today is hardly going to spruce things up either in the absence of any economic data to get our teeth into and the corporate reporting season not in full swing yet.
Despite slightly negative taint to today's report, the FTSE 100 this morning has opened much better than expected causing a "gap" higher on the open. Yesterday's reversal from the lows at around 3 o'clock yesterday was so sharp and took many clients by surprise that it could be a signal that we'll test this week's high of 6034. A close above 6000 at the end of today will be encouraging for the bulls and might be one of the few pieces of good news for the FTSE 100 this week. Clients seem happy to sell into the strength of the FTSE this morning and one can't help thinking that even if we go higher, clients will continue to sell considering the news flow.
The dollar is getting a knock this morning weaker against the majority of other currencies. Sterling attempted to make some sort of recovery against the euro yesterday dipping below the £0.8000 mark. However, since 7am it seems the London FX fraternity got to their desks and just sold off any remaining British pounds they had to send the rate back to £0.8015.
Gold is surprisingly a little lower at $924 and remains content to hold above the $900 mark. Support seems to be building up again after its sharp decline from $1,000 and the market is taking in its stride that the IMF plans to sell a large chunk of its gold holding.
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Spread Trading, 10 Apr 08
Today we see the FTSE holding on to the gains of the past week or so as the opening levels have us up 10 points or so close to the 6000 level. Markets are very quiet as we await the expected 0.50% cut by the Bank of England and we might get an initial move higher as investors look to lock in some yield at the current prices. But dealers are wary as they will be fearful of a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ scenario.
We have now spent four sessions in a tight trading range and looking back over the past months this kind of contraction has always been the precursor to a big move. Our Financial Spreads punters are positioning themselves for this move to be to the downside but the probability must be for a spike higher as a continuation of the recent trend.
Sterling has weakened even further and (whilst I wish it were otherwise) it is difficult to see the trend changing. The extreme weakness of the UK economic situation must lead to pressure somewhere and the currency is the first place to feel it. As our energy needs are increasingly sourced from external supply the immediate impact will be for a worsening of the trade deficit so we may foresee a trend where worse trade numbers cause a weaker pound which causes worse numbers etc until it all goes too far and snaps back.
My hope that the big commodity bull run might be easing has been dealt a cruel blow by the rise and rise the crude oil.
Whilst precious metals are still well off their highs, energy and base metals are pushing the envelope again. And whilst we may be complaining about the cost in the UK, pity the weaker nations who do not have the fat to absorb the latest price hikes. Riots in Egypt could be only the start. Government subsidised staple products can swiftly bankrupt a nation but rulers in many parts of the globe are fearful of removing these props for risk of massive social upheaval.
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Spread Trading, 9 Apr 08
So the headlines continue to report disaster ahead for the housing market with prices slipping at their fastest monthly rate since September 1992, according to the Halifax. There is no question that buyers are now in control with sellers having to accept offers well below asking prices and as a result prices have to fall. It was only a matter of time before buyers dried up after prices had risen to such dizzy heights and with the freezing of the credit markets it's a double whammy for property prices. People can't get affordable mortgages and still house prices are out of reach of the majority of first time buyers. The result of which is falling house prices.
Some people predict a crash, beyond the correction that's taking place right now, but it's difficult to see a fall of such magnitude considering the constraints on housing supply in the UK. In the US house prices have been tumbling for around 4 years now. The main threat to the UK is if there's a mass exodus of the speculative residential property investors.
They've enjoyed the last few years of a booming property market and there'll come a point in the future when many more properties will be put on the market, putting buyers in an even stronger position.
The headlines of the last few days don't make for good reading and the market is feeling a little under the weather this morning. The minutes released by the FOMC last night didn't exude confidence so sellers are in control for the time being. HBOS has felt the brunt of selling this morning as Credit Suisse downgraded the stock. Other banks across Europe have also received downgrades this morning, in particular Switzerland's largest, Commerzbank. As a result financials are putting the pressure on the market. Encouragingly though, the FTSE 100 has already bounced off yesterday's low of 5950 this morning marking in a near term support level. However if that is breached we could head lower quite quickly.
Currencies are mixed this morning. Nevertheless Sterling continues to weaken against the majors having hit another record and landmark low earlier this morning, £0.8000. The GBP / EUR cross is currently at £0.7985. The Euro / Dollar market is taking a little breather at the $1.5710 mark. That’s just below record highs with resistance marked in at $1.5900 since the cross has failed to trade above here twice in March. Capital Spreads Clients remain bullish of the euro, both against the dollar and sterling, expecting the current trend to continue.
The price of Gold is now lower and around the $905 an ounce mark. The Gold spread betting market has seeing big intraday swings in the last few days. Again though, it looks like the Capital Spread Account holders still want to be long of gold. They’re buying on any weakness with the longer term view that we'll see prices test the highs above $1,000 that were set last month. The bulls reasoning for this is that the US's economic problems will heavily support gold prices, but anyone who reads this column regularly knows that I am one of the gold cynics!
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Spread Trading, 8 Apr 08
Despite the continuing doom and gloom the FTSE and other global indices seem to be showing remarkable resilience with the UK's benchmark finishing above the all important 6000 level. With 5 gains out of the last 6 sessions, the bulls are really testing the sellers at the moment, trying to drag equities out of this bear market. There is still a great deal of negative sentiment within the square mile and it seems the majority believe that this bear market has further to run. The recent rise back to the 6000 level has largely been put down to:
- The absence of really bad news
- The beginning of a new quarter, and
- Expectations of an interest rate cut this Thursday
The bearish signs are still there with the US reporting worse than expected job numbers last week, banks and mortgage lenders continuing to tighten their belt, record oil prices and now even the consumers feeling the brunt of the credit squeeze.
Clients have been building up short positions in indices over the past few days so they'll be glad to see the market dipping back below the 6000 level this morning. This morning the market has wiped out only half of the gain it made yesterday and whilst this can't be considered as profit taking, it indicates the cautious mood of investors at the moment. Understandably so since Alcoa kicked off the US reporting season with terrible results, announcing a halving of their Q1 profits.
Despite Alcoa, yesterday was eerily quiet and today things seem to be on a similar footing. It's not often you walk onto the trading floor and you can hear yourself think, but the markets are expected to remain quiet until this evening when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of their last interest rate meeting when they cut by 0.75%. We expect them to focus on the recent weak consumer spending data, the state of the job market and of course the housing situation. Before then US pending home sales data is released at 15h00 London time. This morning should remain demure. One can't help but think though that this is the quiet before the storm. With the US reporting season having only just started, investors will be focusing on corporate America over the coming weeks.
Sterling continues to tumble against the Euro. It’s also performing poorly against the dollar as every time a piece of housing data is released from the UK, it points to falling prices. With the Bank of England deciding on rates on Thursday, many now are hoping for a 0.25% cut in rates, rather than having previously expecting the next cut to come in May. The market will certainly be disappointed if there isn't any action this time round. Euro / Sterling cross is now up at £0.7965, dangerously close to recording another record high above £0.7980.
The price of Gold is unchanged this morning around the $922 mark.
The Crude Oil market is flat after a quiet session in Asia overnight.
Rather surprisingly the IMF have let the market know that they are considering selling some of their gold bullion and who would blame them at these prices! The market has reacted little to the news as it requires board approval and there are still so many willing buyers.
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Spread Trading, 7 Apr 08
We are looking to open higher again today on the FTSE 100 as the effects of the Fed’s bail out of Bear Stearns and the lack of any really bad piece of news continues to bolster the Financial Sector and therefore (in the current situation) the rest of the indices component parts.
Today sees the FTSE looking to open some 30 pips higher at near to the 6000 level with the FTSE 100 spread at 5970-5971. We have now seen some 500 points to the upside since the Federal Reserve’s Bear Stearns bailout. As mentioned several times over the past week, the crucial level is just above 6100 and we really need to get here and stay here for the big investment arms to come in with greater determination. At the moment trading volumes are still quite restrained and much of the rally (and the previous fall) has been more to do with Market Maker pricing weakness than with genuine conviction. Selling is likely to be quite strong at these levels as we approach more critical points.
Looking at the FX markets the dollar has come in after the weekend with a spring in its step and is pressuring the Yen and Pound once more (and managing to hold back the Euro). Cable had another look above $2 last week but each peek above the line is getting weaker and shorter lived (this one did not even last a full trading session). The inference is that we are seeing a falling high tide mark every time which is generally seen as a precursor to a more sustained fall.
Commodities prices (especially softs) are still very much on the up and up and the effect of higher food prices in the poorer parts of the globe cannot be over estimated. We can expect rising costs in much of what we consider to be the cheap manufacturing areas of the Indian Sub continent and the Far East as workers look to increase their wages to counteract their reduction in spending power.
Gold has managed to recover the bull run momentum over the past few days with the medium term up-trend having been regained. Dealers will be hoping that this is not a dead cat bounce in a falling market but the prospects are reasonably good that the fall to $870 has shaken out the weak longs.
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Spread Trading, 4 Apr 08
The FTSE is opening slightly to the good as we look for a second leg to the bear squeeze of the last few days. It is tempting to say that the current situation is a moment of peace whilst we await the decision as to whether the recent rally is just a short term bear rally or an indication that the markets may be regaining some composure. Whichever scenario turns out to be the answer we can still expect some positive moves to the upside if short positions get squeezed any further. As discussed before, we really need to get above 6100 and stay there, that would give some indication that the current negative sentiment might have run its course. Until then we are still in ‘bear mode’ albeit in a period of light relief.
The FX markets had the good manners to bounce off the support levels mentioned yesterday with Sterling rebounding strongly from $1.9750, the USD / GBP spreads is now at $1.9970 - $1.9973. The Euro is rejecting the sub $1.56 region and has bounced up to $1.5686 - $1.5688. Sterling has had its best few days for quite some time as the Bank of England credit report came in showing weakness as feared but not too much. It also indicated that whilst the banks were likely to draw in their lending lines not everything was gloom and doom. There is almost certain to be a rate cut at the next meeting but this might be it for some time and the currency traders took heart from the more certain outlook.
Commodities rushed around but in the end closed pretty much unchanged as traders try to estimate whether we are up here for the long haul or whether the great bull move of 2007/2008 has run its course.
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Spread Trading, 3 Apr 08
A peaceful start to the day with most of the indices trading at pretty much the same levels as yesterday's close. The bull run managed another day of solid gains in the FTSE, but the suspicion is that much of the move has been of the bear squeeze variety. There are still some heavy shorts out there in the banks and the feeling is growing of the possibility that the current move may well have another leg to it as bears finally get pushed into covering their positions.
The FTSE 100 Spread is currently at 5914 - 5915 off 1 whole point and the trading range for the first hour has been almost miserly. With the Non Farm numbers out tomorrow from the States we may well be in for some consolidation at these prices as traders flatten out positions in anticipation of what might be a BIG mover.
On the Currency front the dollar continues to put in a good performance raising well above 100 against the yen and pushing towards $1.56 versus the Euro. Rather unnervingly the GBP/EUR and EUR/USD have swapped places over the past six months where the sterling cross was at the €1.50 level it is now at €1.25 and the dollar/euro has gone the other way moving from $1.25 up to $1.50. A good indication (if any were needed) of the continued decay in both the pound and the greenback.
Cable is back in the $1.97's region which, over the last six weeks, has proved to be something of a support level, particularly at around $1.9725 to $1.9750. Sterling longs will be hoping for another bounce from here. The trend though does not look particularly positive and there may be fears of a failure here and a consequent move down to the $1.9350 to $1.9400 major support level.
Gold managed to climb back up to the medium term trend line at $904 which it broke through on Tuesday but it is now backtracking away from here. The gold spread is currently at $898.0 - $898.5 just below the psychological $900 level. Clients are buying once more on the move but are very twitchy to any quick reversals.
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Spread Trading, 2 Apr 08
A bit of Déjà vu this morning as the recapitalisation of shell shocked banks prompts a huge rally across the globe. Forgive me for being a bit cynical but didn’t the same thing happen a few months ago when Bear Stearns (amongst others) announced similar balance sheet injections.
Whilst I am happy to hope that the world has suddenly become a much cuddlier place it would be foolish to pretend that there are not some serious problems still out there. On the other hand, as I have mentioned, many times, over the past month that there has been plenty of evidence to suggest putting a toe in the water on selected stocks, I am not going to ignore this opportunity for crowing a bit!
Banking stock has been the big winner over the past few days with HBOS now looking to be the star performer. Forgive me for being cynical (once again) but the only people who I can verifiably state to have benefited from the bear raid on the HBOS stock seems to have been the board of directors themselves. They, very publicly, took the opportunity presented by the drop to buy quite a sizable chunk of stock in the knowledge that the FSA and the Bank of England were backing them up. Is that insider dealing or a demonstration of support? The ‘rumour’ of impending collapse is now reported to have originated in the ‘Far East’, how very convenient for all concerned!
As the markets continue to bash about (albeit this time to the upside) the volatility continues to make the trading environment a tough one. Although yesterday was pretty much one directional as the biggest retracement in the whole session was only around 25 points this has not been the norm recently. Intra day spikes and troughs have been exceptionally violent. It has been difficult for day traders to hold onto positions in many cases when subsequently correct bets have proved too painful to hold in the short term.
Whilst the markets had one of their better days (the Dow apparently had its best start to the third quarter in 70 years) the actual news coming out was not exactly stunning. Reading the business section of various newspapers seemed to be a bit of a masochistic occupation this morning. Confidence level weakness and minor profit warnings abounded. If the problems of the financial sector do start to filter through into the general economy as a whole we can expect this secondary phase to start to kick in over the summer months.
The FTSE bulls are looking for a break above 5885 as the first indication that this current move might be more than just a flash in the pan but to be truly confirmed the index really needs to get above 6110 and stay there for the big investors to start believing in an end to the last years’ turbulence.
The opening quotes are for a small increase in yesterdays move with the call at around 6865. The Capital Spreads Account Holders do not seem convinced and we have seen solid selling in pre-market activity. In the current environment this is quite brave as the chances of a continuation of the bear squeeze seem quite good.
As feared Gold continues to weaken as other investment sectors have their day in the sun and the dollar puts on a bit of a bounce. The yellow metal is now below $900 for the first time since mid Feb and we have seen a 15% fall from the traded highs.
Silver continues to suffer and at one point yesterday it was down almost 25% down.
If the dollar continues to strengthen and the equity markets settle into a better trading sentiment the rush into precious metal protection may very well turn into a stampede to get out. It this point there will be a great number of hurting long positions being nursed by anxious traders. There is expected to be support at the current levels around $875 and below here at $850 but if these are breached then bears will be eying below $800 and further.
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Spread Trading, 1 Apr 08
Indices are just about holding on to the levels of the past few days and it was quite pleasing to see the turnaround in the FTSE yesterday after the initial 100 point drop and the ensuing rally actually peaking in positive territory. The last five days have seen our quoted closing price on the FTSE encompassed by just 50 points and the actual trading ranges seem to be quietening down a bit.
Since the Bear Stearns problem/solution there seems to have been a hiatus in bad news but the speculation that US manufacturing probably contracted in the last month comes as something of a surprise. If the industrial sector cannot make it self more attractive on a global basis with the dollar now 20% lower than this time last year the arguments about the attractions of weaker currencies suddenly look less certain.
The indices are all looking to open slightly to the down side this morning with the FTSE called 15 points off at 5685 and the Dow down at 12225 off some 35 pips. This is not exactly significant but is slightly disappointing as the Nikkei and Hang Seng put in solid trading performances overnight. Resistance in the FTSE (as mentioned yesterday once more) remains at the 5720 level and after the strong bounce yesterday traders will be hoping that sellers will become nervous below 5630.
Gold begins the day at $916 but buyers are getting stretched at theses prices and there may be an early attempt to the downside to squeeze them out. Support in the yellow metal is at the bottom of the fall out last week at $903 and this also (now) equates to the trend line support of the big bull move from $650 started back in August. A close below here could not be described as anything other than negative.
Crude Oil had a pretty solid down day falling $3.50s and this was after rallying over a dollar and half at the start of trading and gave a total range of six bucks. Over the past two weeks there have been three big falls of this nature and whilst the ensuing bounces have push us up to almost the same highs as before the important word here is ‘almost’. Each rally peaks at a lower point and this is often seen as a classic sign of a tired bull run.
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Spread Trading, 31 Mar 08
Late comment today so I have the advantage of seeing where the markets are actually trading before opening my pencil case.
Slightly disappointing on the open after last weeks reasonable performance as the fall out in the US markets on Friday evening and the drop in the Far East this morning have taken their toll.
The FTSE’s opening trading range has us off about 50 pips at 5640 and dealers are nervously waiting to see if this weakness follows through into the late morning early afternoon sessions.
Sad to say but I was feeling quite bullish on the train in this morning and was almost tempted to buy a bit of stock. Fortunately the demands of writing this comment have kept me away from the dealing floor! The banking sector is beginning to weaken again under a plethora of speculative bad news. Punters are trying to pick a bottom at the moment (with little success it must be said) and since starting this comment the index has fallen another 50 pips to now be sitting some 100 points off on Friday’s close.
The 5720 resistance level, mentioned in previous comments, has held again and we are now focussing on the lower end of the trading range at around 5450.
FX markets were looking dollar friendly this morning but the pressure on the Greenback appears to be reasserting itself and the Euro and Yen have both bounced from early weakness and are now slightly to the good on the weekend levels. Unfortunately the pound is weak even against the dollar and is now at £0.7960 vs the Euro, a new all time low. The chances for the Bank of England to have any impact on imported inflation now seem remote indeed. Even holding rates artificially high has done nothing to prop up the poor old pound. Virtually every manufactured import will now be costing some 20% more this year than last, if you add in commodity increases (at least these are priced in dollars) the wonder is that the retailers have managed to keep such a cap on high street prices.
As the equity markets slump thus the demand for Gold increases once more. The yellow metal is now some 10 bucks higher this morning but the buying seems to be coming from Europe for once rather than the Far East and the US. We are still some way off the levels of last week, which tended to oscillate around 950 level, but with the gold spread at $938.0 - $938.5 the recovery from Fridays weakness is underway.
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For the latest spread trading update from Simon Denham click here.
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Financial Spread Bets April 2008' by DB, updated 11-Apr-08
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