Financial Spread Bet May 2008
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A regular spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads.
For the latest spread trading update from Simon Denham click here.
Spread Trading, 23 May 08
UK news wires will concentrate on the Crewe and Nantwich bye-election result where the huge Tory victory can be guaranteed to put even more pressure on the PM. Unfortunately a desperate administration may start to make (or should that be.. continue to make) decisions based upon voter approval rather than financial and economic prudence.
The giveaway £2 billion of last week, which many felt was a last ditch effort to save last nights run off from complete catastrophe, will have many analysts and economists fearful for what may be in store in the run in to the next election. Do not get me wrong, I believe in a much lower tax take for the public purse but lower revenues means lower spending. This administration is very unlikely to make anything remotely near to the difficult decisions required when the state is contemplating spending cuts and so the strain is likely to be taken up with more public debt.
Stunning though the Nantwich result was, am I the only one who was rather surprised to hear that the Tories had not won a bye-election since 1982. Labour have been in power now for eleven years and for much of that time have been increasingly unpopular. Bye-elections are notorious for giving people the opportunity to make a protest vote without the actual fear of changing the administration and yet, not once in all this time have the Conservatives managed to give them a bloody nose. Gordon Brown is wounded but it would be a brave challenger to come to the fore now as the chances of any turn around in the economic fortunes of the UK before the next election are slim, no matter what the BOE, Treasury or Government do. This would make the likelihood of Our Gordon limping on till final defeat in 2010 engulfs him quite strong. Of course he might do something really nasty like resign and leave his challengers to sort out the mess.
Markets are expected to be on the quiet side this morning as there is a distinct lack of any corporate news out today although the provisional Q1 GDP out at 09.30 might give us a bit of fun.
GDP numbers are odd beasts in that they look so far into the past that it is difficult to equate them to current events. At the end of March Crude Oil was below $100, the Banks were yet to announce any rights issues, there were hopes that commodity prices were peaking and FTSE was looking very fragile down at 5500. You get the impression, in recent weeks, that policy makers are being overwhelmed by events that had not been foreseen and this is causing a kind of paralysis in high places. The price of fuel must now be impacting growth across the globe. Any thought that, in the circumstances, the UK government might reduce their tax take (some 70% of the total) to lower the price on the forecourt does not seem to have occurred to anyone.
The FTSE 100 is struggling to maintain these levels now with more sellers coming into the game over the past few days. The squeeze up to 6390 of last week now seems a distant memory but of course dealers are generally hopeful of bullish rather than bearish price action so there is always a natural tendency to optimism. Technically, the index having failed to maintain the levels above 6230 and failing to get back above this point in the last few sessions means that we have broken the eight week bull run in place since late March. There is support at 6135 and 6060 which could well be the targets for a short term sell off.
Sterling had one of its surging days yesterday moving higher against every other major currency. We have seen some very heavy buying in the Pound and Euro vs the lower interest rate currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) in the last few sessions as traders search out for return. Rates have moved around so much in the last six months or so that there is a great deal of room for solid shifts in one direction or the other without impacting fundamental valuations.
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Spread Trading, 22 May 08
Dealers bought Crude Oil heavily after the US inventory numbers showed a surprise drop last week, although it has to be said that the inventories had been rising for months. The squeeze in the markets since the end of March is actually managing to make the rise in Gold over 2005 to 2007 look pedestrian. Yesterday’s $4.5 rally is being followed this morning by another $1.50 on the open which means that the price at the pumps is doomed to rise even higher in coming days/weeks.
Airlines, who do not pay such extreme duty on aviation fuel as motorists do on ordinary petrol, will be feeling the pinch even more as there is a limit to how big a fuel surcharge they can add to base ticket prices.
Haulage companies will be passing their increased costs to producers (who are struggling under their own energy bills) who will pass this on to the retailers who will attempt to pass it through to consumers. Of course each section of the chain will absorb some of the hike through narrowing profit margins but there is a limit as to how much can be absorbed before high street inflation is affected. Unfortunately all this is happening just as the poor old shopper is himself having to fork out ever greater slices of his income through exactly the same pressures and some home grown ones thrown in as well (high debt levels and council taxes). Wages are currently not rising at the same rate as expenditure and it is likely that the average citizen will once again actually be poorer at the end of 2008 than at the beginning.
This is likely to result in a double squeeze on retail spending through the remainder of this year. That, I fear, is likely to leave those retailers on highly leveraged debt levels in something of a pickle. Banks are not exactly sympathetic at the moment over renewing debt expirations and are likely to be asking for more than their normal pound of flesh to compensate for the increased risk.
Oil is probably the single most important commodity in the world economy no matter what macro economists may say when comparing the current situation to the last oil shock in the seventies. The fact that it only comes from a limited number of sources and that most of those are not exactly bosom buddies of the west makes the current situation even more volatile. We might be suffering in the UK but can you imagine what the price is doing to struggling economies in Africa. Yet again we are seeing the effects of inelastic supply on prices. Just enough oil...prices down at $80. Just too little...prices up at $135. And unfortunately there is b****r all we can do about it in the short term.
UK stocks are struggling this morning to regain any momentum after the sell off on Tuesday and the Banking sector (which had ignored the pummeling on that day) is now in the torpedo sights once again. Barclays is now well below 400p at around 385p, a new multi year low. RBS at 235p is approaching the cash call price, as is B&B at just 103p. Payment date is not far away and it would be very embarrassing if the price dropped below the offer.
The capitalisation of Bradford and Bingley is now just £650m which is a perilous situation for a bank with so many UK mortgages lodged in its vaults.
The FTSE is now back at the level where we had such a battle just a few weeks ago (around 6190) and dealers will be hoping that what was resistance back then will turn into support now. I fear though that the bad news is building once more and that there may be a continuation of this week’s weakness in the short to medium term.
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Spread Trading, 21 May 08
After Saint Stuart’s numbers came in above the £1bn line it was rather rude of the city to turn round and dump the stock (in line with everything else, mind you). But it was only after reading that the Marks & Spencer figures were helped by a one-off £95m Pension credit boost, £27m in property sales and the fact that they paid out £75m less in staff bonuses that you realise. Even my limited mathematical ability, that the numbers would have actually been worse without them, £933m vs 936m (£1,130-95-27-75). Once the number crunchers had had their way and coupled with the fact that these results happened before the recent massive rises in fuel, food and energy costs will have done their worst to shoppers ability to buy discretionary goods the sellers took out their knives once again.
As our politicians last night decided what was the ‘acceptable’ time limit to murder a foetus asking for enlightenment on actually running the country might seem to be superfluous. Pontificating about something that is, in the end, ‘a matter of opinion’ is meat and drink to politicians (like fox hunting). However actually having to work towards a coherent economic policy, requiring real work and effort is, in almost equal measure, pure anathema.
Chancellor Darling’s back pedalling over recent Treasury plans over corporate taxation will have fooled few. Unfortunately major corporations cannot run their forward planning over what is ‘meant’ by proposals they must go on what their advisors tell them is written in black and white. Trust has all but disappeared between the tax man and those actually earning the money and many will not wish to risk a ‘reassessment’ of the legislation at some later date. The Treasury is caught between a rock and a hard place, the desperate need to increase revenue in a slowing economy has led to a series of ill thought out and murkily released stealth taxes aimed almost exclusively at corporate level. As tax advisers have turned over each rock to reveal the creepy crawlies hidden beneath, the Chancellor has had to water down a series of initiative culminating in the exact opposite with the £2bn giveaway to voters last week but this will not help company tax levels.
Unlike voters many companies can effectively vote with their feet, there are many perfectly reasonable countries to operate out of offering much lower taxation levels than the UK and we are risking a massive reduction in revenue by continually tinkering with agreed structures.
Wolseley’s profit is off but only 30% which will be something of a relief for many. The stock has slumped 60% since last summer so the fears that they might be sliding into losses have been well wide of the mark. The stock is expected to open well on the upside but given that it sold off 22p yesterday it will have to do well to get back even this. The debt level is still eye watering at nearly £3bn and it is probably this that will determine the future of the company.
Punters seem confident that yesterdays sell off was a one off and have turned round positions from heavily short yesterday to solid buying this morning. I am not so sure that the sell off will not find further legs as, with Crude Oil now up at close to $130, margins on virtually everything are being squeezed mercilessly. Output prices will rise but in the absence of a growing economy they will do so into a contracting market.
There was some comfort in yesterdays sell off in that the banking sector seemed to be (by and large) completely ignored for once. Whilst virtually every sector came under pressure the Banks remained rock solid and there might be reason to believe that a base may have been reached. The last brick to drop will be the final announcement from Barclays as to whether they will go for cash or not. Once this uncertainty has gone then, at least in the UK, we might be able to look afresh at valuations.
Bradford and Bingley has been heavily sold on the back of their heavy reliance on ‘Buy to Let’ mortgages but with other reports showing that rent inflation is running at around 10% (20% in some regions), as property purchases are put on hold for the time being, it might be that the yields on rental are about to catch up with valuations rather faster than valuations are falling to meet rental returns.
Oil continues to scream higher and it is difficult to get too much of a handle on reality in the sector. Shorts are being hung out to dry and even sellers of forward production are now having to buy to cover positions as they are unable to put up the cash for margin calls. At some point the elastic band will snap back but this might be at $150 or $180 dollars just as easily as at the current level. Punters continue to try to find a top but it is unfortunately a mugs game to stand in the way of the stream of buyers.
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Spread Trading, 20 May 08
The FTSE has squeezed higher and higher over the past few weeks culminating in yesterday’s sharp shift up to the high 6300’s. This move has had more to do with short squeezing than real fundamentals and punters have been getting shorter and shorter throughout the move waiting for a break in the trend. Today there looks to be an early morning attempt and with the markets down 50 on the close last night there is a chance that they may get some relief. Over the past month or so though there have been numerous mini bear moves which have come to nothing. It would probably not be wise to say that the bull run has finished unless we close a good deal lower than current levels. Trend line support is way down at 6230 which gives us a lot of room to manoeuvre.
Looking at Forex Spread Betting we are seeing a very swift repost to yesterday’s dollar strength with the pound regaining all its losses before we even walked in the door today. Cable is building a strong support in the $1.94 to $1.9450 region and we have bounced solidly off here several times in the past few months. The current GBP / USD spread is $1.9565 - $1.9568 is pretty much mid market for current trading levels but dealers will be hoping for more of a rally as we saw some solid buying below $1.95 yesterday afternoon.
Gold has broken through the down trend after seeming to have given up again in the middle of last week. Earthquakes and Cyclones add up to uncertainty which is meat and drink to the precious metals markets. The gold prices is now hammering at the $910 level and we really need to see a continuation of the past few days rally otherwise the sellers are likely to get more confident.
Crude Oil is still very near to the all time highs. Supply still seems plentiful (I have not heard of rationing anywhere on the globe) so it will take another piece of bad news to break us higher. Unfortunately bad news seems to be all we get these days so I would not hold my breath expecting a dramatic fall just yet.
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Spread Trading, 19 May 08
The weekend press could hardly be described as ‘joyful’ as analysts lined up to prophesise doom and gloom across all divisions but this week we get to see how many of the ‘real’ sectors of the economy are performing with a wide swathe of differing corporate results. Interspersed with these will be a series of the rather less important UK and US data releases that fill up the monthly schedules.
Today is a bit of a washout with only the ‘Leading Indicators’ number from the US at 1500, a few minor corporate results and just the ‘Rightmove’ May housing index which showed prices 2.2% up on the year (hardly disastrous).
Things will heat up a bit on Tuesday as Marks & Spencer come to the table with a rumoured £1 Billion profit for last year (to the end of March) but Sir Stuart will presumably be keeping the Champagne on ice for the time being as shareholders will be wondering what happened to all their money over the last twelve months. Picking up a renowned company which was reeling on the ropes four years ago and delivering...well...not very much is not now going to look so hot on his resume and the recent spat with institutional investors over his self promoted ascension as ‘lord of all he surveys’ will probably require a bit of soft soap for some time. Analysts expect next years profits to be some £200m worse than last so the right note on the trading statement is essential.
British Land will be announcing the latest from the investment property front and we can expect some solid right downs in valuations but the stock has already halved from the highs of 2006/7 whilst rentals have remained reasonably solid. Borrowing costs are expected to factor in the board statement but the stock price over the past few trading sessions seems to indicate that more optimism might be in order.
Imperial Tobacco will be showing once again that the wages of death are in fact rather high. With little in the line of research and development any more and marketing restricted to the dark side of the moon you would have felt that the writing was on the wall. However with Kate Moss showing that you can still smoke gazillions a day and remain on the front of Vogue who cares. Profit margins look solid and dividend return tempting. Not exactly a growth stock but then again the same could be said for many at the moment.
On the economic radar we will see the PPI numbers from the US which will tell us...err...that rising Oil, Metals, Food etc etc are probably not too good for PPI numbers. We expect 6.7% YOY but do not be surprised if it is worse.
Wednesday is again quiet on the corporate front with just one company of note coming to the podium. Wolseley will be telling us that things are bad and that the next year will be just a tough. Borrowing levels at the company are not exactly encouraging as any company in heavy debt in the current environment can be assumed to be suffering. Wolseley’s £2.9 billion can, I think, definitely be described as a chunky overdraft.
April is a good tax revenue month so Net Borrowing should be only around £1.5bn (0930 release from the treasury) but the real numbers to watch should be the M4 data. This has been running at near to or over 12% for some time. If it shows signs of coming down sharply then fears of a swift fall into a recessionn may be closer to the mark.
On Thursday Clara Furze will be announcing the LSE’s latest results and she could be another CEO looking over her shoulders soon. Her ‘masterful’ defence against all comers ('just say no'...over and over again) has left investors holding the worst performing stock in the FTSE 100 this year. Not bad when you look at some of its competitors for that title. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but many will be wishing that the Nasdaq had pushed for a shareholder vote.
Topps Tiles numbers will eyed for indications over the DIY and small construction sector (which probably does not bode well). However the stock is already shell shocked and at a 70% discount from the highs so it is difficult to get too bearish as there is not much left to be bearish about.
Others of note are De la Rue, Mothercare and Tate and Lyle.
At 0930 we will get the UK April retail sales which should enliven proceeding a bit. Rumour has it that whilst everyone is talking about the imminent end of everything the high street has managed to do ok. Maybe the old joke has legs in it after all...'when the going get tough, the tough go shopping'. From the States we get the house price index at 15.00 but I feel that this is already so negative that virtually any number is likely to be a relief.
And so to Friday...when there is absolutely Zip of interest whatsoever...Why couldn’t they have the Lord’s test this week?
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Spread Trading, 14 May 08
The FTSE’s opened lower than our original call this morning as the bears take control using the after thought of the BOE’s quarterly inflation report as an excuse to test recent lows around 6140. Clients remain bearish of the FTSE 100 overall, but today’s dip has attracted a few buyers back into the market in the belief that this little uptrend has further to go. The fact remains though that since the small break-out at the beginning of May the market has traded sideways and the feeling is that there needs to be a real turn in the tide for the market to push on up a steep hill. The jury is still out as to whether this is a bear market bounce or a true end to the overall bear market. The answer to this will be down to how the banking stocks perform going forward. Recently they have been particularly sluggish yet the FTSE has remained relatively resilient.
Retailers are feeling it a bit this morning after DSG International, (Dixons and Currys) announced a cut in their annual dividend and they are due to close some stores following a drop in sales. With more disposable income going on petrol on food it’ll be a while before wages catch up again for consumers to be able to go and splash out on new TVs, cookers etc. With no interest for football supporters in this year’s Euro Championships as well, the future looks grim for electrical retailers.
The Euro is having a bounce following this morning’s GDP data from Germany and France, currently trading at $1.5540 and Cable (GBP / USD) is also a little higher at $1.9485.
A build in crude oil inventories gave bulls the opportunity to take some profit as crude fell back from highs yesterday. However that does not indicate a turn in the trend according to Capital Spreads clients who have bought into this fall as they clearly expect prices to test record highs again in the future.
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Spread Trading, 15 May 08
Mining stocks lead the way and they have been the stalwarts of the FTSE in the past few weeks. Banks are really sluggish despite better than expected figures from France’s BNP Paribas. It seems that investors have cashed in on a round of large dividends from banks and just lost interest by selling up. One can’t help but have the feeling that there will come a point rather soon when investors pile back into these banking stocks. The main thing preventing them at the moment is the prospect of interest rates not going down as expected.
The FTSE 100’s been hovering around 6200 for a while now and clients remain bearish overall. The intraday trading environment remains attractive with small daily ranges across the majority of financial markets at the moment. The real question is though are we going to see the old adage “sell in May and go away” come to fruition.
The dollar continues to strengthen against other majors this morning and Cable (GBP / USD) in particular is at an interesting level. $1.9400 is a big support level and has tempted some of our clients to go long of the pound in the hope for a bounce, but a fall below here and it looks like $1.9000 might be the next stop.
Oil attempted to mark another record high while oddly enough gold had a sharp drop. Over the past two years oil and gold have moved in the same direction in line with a falling dollar, but it looks like that correlation is finally over. Oil inventories due out today will be closely watched by anyone with interest in the price of crude oil (ie pretty much everyone) to see if they can help put a halt to the bull run.
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Spread Trading, 13 May 08
The markets today look to be opening back up at yesterdays opening levels as the FTSE yet again tries to break above 6270. The price action of the last few days bears an uncanny resemblance to the action in mid to late April when we were struggling to get above 6100 (remember the five trading days in a row when the index closed within a few pips of each preceding day). The pressure looks, once more, to be on the up side but we have been here before and with the CPI number out at 09.30 it would be odd for us to break out before this.
The Pound Dollar cross obligingly bounced off the support mentioned yesterday at $1.9450 after the PPI numbers came in even stronger than forecast (rather backing up the MPC’s rate decision last week). The outlook for rate cuts, whilst compelling on several fronts, is rather weakened by the blowtorch of increasing inflationary pressures. Maybe the committee will ignore the price rise data and go for growth (as per the Fed) but it would be a brave man to predict this as it would be flying in the face of the last ten years off policy. Unfortunately higher rates are unlikely to come to the aid of the pound for long as there is a swathe of other factors pushing down its attractions. A couple of percent over a year in added income hardly compensates for the huge trade and budget deficits.
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Spread Trading, 12 May 08
The FTSE 100 spread is opening about 25 higher at around 6230 in early action as the Oil and Mining sectors exert their influence once more but with retailing and banking, yet again, taking the back seat. The index looks to be pressuring the 6250 to 6280 level mentioned several times over the past week or so. Bulls will be hoping for a breach which would then leave a resistance target around 6310 - 6340. On the down side there is now solid volume support all the way down to 5990.
Currency traders seem to be dollar favourable this morning with the Yen giving up 80 and the Euro 100 pips from Friday’s close. The pound is recovering a little of last weeks losses but it must be said that the momentum is still very much pound unfavourable. The GBP / USD spread is at $1.9481 - $1.9484 having printed new 10 week lows at $1.9440 in early action. Unfortunately the pound seems to have got itself into a ‘lower low, lower high’ cycle versus the dollar over the past few weeks and we need to break out of this sentiment soon otherwise we will be pressuring serious weekly closing support levels at around $1.9300 which, if broken, could well see the pound slumping back into the 2003-2006 trading range of $1.7000 to $1.9000.
Oil set new record highs each day last week. A warning from Goldman Sachs that oil could hit $200 resulted in heavy buying of options to purchase oil at that level in December 2008. OPEC did not help matters, blaming speculators, rather than a lack of supply, for the recent jump in prices. Brent Crude finished the week $10 higher at $125.4.
Gold held the $950 support level and bounced $26 on the week to $876.30.
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For the latest spread trading update from Simon Denham click here.
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
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