Gold and Crude Oil have responded to the dollar strength and have retreated over the past few days (only a little in the case of Oil but significantly in Gold). There are considerable long positions still in many commodity markets and if the perception takes hold that the best has been seen then we could well see some really alarming price action in the coming months.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 24 Apr 08
Gold and Oil appear to be on opposite tracks at the moment as one surges ever higher and the other continues to struggle to maintain value. In a resource hungry situation, as we have at the moment, the price of a product that requires continuous renewal (Oil, Softs etc) is likely to be far more attractive than one that for all intents and purposes is eternal (Gold, Silver etc).
Brent Crude Oil is now at $116.50 (another all time high) but we will need to get through the $116.70 level which has been something of a barrier for the last three days. There was an attempt at a small pull back yesterday, as there have been on odd occasions over the past three weeks, but once more the buyers beat off the weakness with some ease after the inventories number in the States disappointed.
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Crude Oil Spread Betting, 23 Apr 08
Crude Oil continues to power higher and with the news that the emerging economies have overtaken the US as the biggest users of the black stuff it is not hard to speculate that markets will take us ever higher.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 22 Apr 08
Oil...Going up, staying up, staying painful. Over 100 quid to fill up my gas guzzler the other night. Will have to raid the kiddies piggy bank.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 21 Apr 08
Crude Oil remains tight with prices at all time highs (and seemingly making new ones every day). It is tempting to suggest that at current levels the sheer expense should have its own braking effect. Fewer and fewer people and companies will be able to maintain consumption levels at these prices which should (?? Perhaps) reduce demand enough to create a counter move. The news that hedge funds are big buyers probably means the exact opposite. They would only let this type of information leak out if they were long and looking to get out.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 17 Apr 08
Brent crude oil is now above $112 and there is no slackening of demand. A small pull back yesterday afternoon was swiftly smashed into submission and the price went from £1.50 cents down to close £1.10 cents up. As we are in uncharted territory at the moment all we can do is speculate as to how far things will go. As always they will probably go much further than anyone suspects. I, personally, hope not but fear so.
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Crude Oil Spread Betting, 15 Apr 08
There’s little in the way of economic data today, but interestingly last night’s release of the FOMC minutes gave a very interesting reading. A few members of the committee called for a smaller cut than the 0.75% the Fed made on 18th March. It seems that, as with our clients, even the Fed is finding it difficult to find common ground to try and steer their economy out of trouble. With Crude Oil prices hitting yet another record high overnight the majority of the Fed are brushing the inflation problem under the carpet for the time being. It’s easy to see now why the UK’s central bank is so reluctant to cut rates when inflation shows no signs of abating.
Our (June) Brent Crude Oil spread is currently $111.34 - £111.39 (note that this market closes on 15 May 2008)
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 14 Apr 08
Crude Oil hit a new high after a drop in inventories and news that OPEC has sneakily cut production. The Energy Information Administration warned that the oil market was tight and that prices would average over $100 a barrel this year. Brent Crude finished the week at $107.85, a rise of $3.
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Crude Oil Trading April 2008' by DB, updated 25-Apr-08
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