Yellow and Black Gold are starting off on the weak side in early action as prices retreat from the big moves to the upside of yesterday (gold) and Wednesday (oil). Gold peaked at $925.5 just before the US open yesterday and then drifted for the rest of the session all the way back down and we are now calling the Gold Spread at $910.3 - $910.8. Dealers are trying to fathom which of the two spike moves (the one lower on Wednesday or higher yesterday) will prove to be the forecast indication to watch.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 31 Jul 08
Crude Oil also reversed its previous falls and the $121 level identified many weeks ago as the short term target for any reversal has now proved to be good enough support for the time being. The US inventories reversed last weeks numbers and the weaker than expected number helped Brent to bounce $6 from the lows. We are now at $127 and looking reasonably comfortable.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 30 Jul 08
The drop down to the current Euro / Dollar spread of $1.5577 - $1.5579 came as a welcome piece of good news to clients as the longs in Oil were well and truly hammered by the midmorning and early afternoon dramatic falls. Punters attempted to catch the falling knife all the way down and only a few were able to profitably take advantage of the small bounce just before the close. My medium term target of $121 has now been reached (with a low of $120.92 yesterday) and dealers will now be trying to asses whether the longer term direction is down or if there is a chance of a bounce from here.
This afternoon will bring the Oil inventories number from the States and clients are likely to sit on their hands until then.
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Crude Oil Spread Betting, 29 Jul 08
The Crude Oil spread is up at $126.40-45 for September Brent well off yesterday’s low of around $124. Capital Spreads Clients continue to buy into any weakness so the bounce will come as a bit of a relief after the weakness over the last two weeks. The fall in the dollar in late action yesterday will have helped the Commodity bulls but this now seems to have run its course so a new impetus will have to come from elsewhere. Tomorrows’ oil inventories could be the trigger for another dramatic shift but it would be foolish to try to guess which way.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 28 Jul 08
Brent Crude Oil (September) closed last week down -$5.67 at $124.52 (down -4.36%)
WTI / US Oil (September) closed last week down -$5.62 at $123.26 (down -4.36%)
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 25 Jul 08
Elsewhere crude oil has recovered a couple of bucks on renewed fears over Nigerian and Iranian supply but the rally is not as strong as this type of rumour would have achieved just a week or so ago. September Brent is opening at just under $127 still $20 off the highs of just last week. Buyers are coming back into the market on hopes of something of a rebound but they are keeping their stops very close just in case of a return to the weakness of Monday to Wednesday. Russian production remains weak but the problems over TNK-BP do not seem to have ever threatened supply further. The tacit Russian State approval and aid of just four super rich individuals over the entire world wide share holders in BP is another chilling indication of the problems involved in being ‘over there’. It seems to match the sort of problems that foreign financial institutions have historically experienced in doing business in the States.
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Crude Oil Spread Betting, 24 Jul 08
Crude Oil joined the gold rout with another $4.50 drop and Financial Spreads are now sitting uneasily at $125 bucks for September Brent. It is very difficult to call either way at this point as absolute value (probably between $60 and $80 dollars) is at the mercy of so many outside influences.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 23 Jul 08
Crude Oil is suddenly in the scenario of being ‘Billy No Mates’ in the kitchen at parties. It has now retraced $20 from the highs of last week and punters are getting a little burnt in the fall out. Stories of $150 and $200 bucks a barrel (whilst possibly true in the medium term) have tempted buyers out of the woodwork just as the price has dumped lower. September Brent is now down at support at $127.75 and buyers will be hoping that the level will hold. The momentum appears (for the time being) to be in the sellers favour and if this level is broken on a close the next target will be down to $121.
The recent weakness in Commodities has been dollar related to some extent as the greenback has had something of a bounce in the last few days but the problem for commodities is that they are in high territory for two reasons (weak dollar and supply). If either of these reverses then the fall out could be spectacular.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 22 Jul 08
Longs in Crude Oil breathed a little easier as storm worries forced the market higher yesterday but the problem with this type of surge is that during the aftermath (if no structural damage occurs) the reaction can be more violent than the original move. Brent is due to come in at $132.20 - $132.25 down about 40¢ from the $2 move higher yesterday.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 21 Jul 08
Brent Crude Oil (August) closed last week down -$14.30 at $130.19 (down -9.9%).
WTI / US Oil (August) closed last week down -$16.20 at $128.88 (down -11.17%).
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Crude Oil Spread Trading July 2008' by DB, updated 01-Aug-08
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