Crude Oil Spread Betting: Bull Market Continues but Brent Needs to Pass $126
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Crude Oil Spread Betting: Bull Market Continues but Brent Needs to Pass $126

 Crude Oil Spread Betting: Bull Market Continues but Brent Needs to Pass $126
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Brent Crude Oil Spread Betting Analysis

Since reaching a low of $77 a barrel in May 2010, the price of Brent has been climbing steadily.

There are the normal corrections, probably more a result of profit taking than fundamental factors, but apart from that we can nearly draw a straight line between May last year and the current price.

Recently the price peaked at $126.88 on the 8th of April. Since then we have seen a retraction and on the 19th of April, it actually touched $119.05 for a short time before starting to increase again. The current price of $124.38 is still lower than the recent maximum, but slowly getting closer.

Brent Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis

On the demand side, various factors actually point towards lower oil prices in the medium term. In the first place, winter in the Northern Hemisphere has ended. This means that oil consumption in the world’s largest oil consuming countries, such as the USA, China and Japan, should start decreasing.

Japan is also still suffering from the after-effects of the recent earthquake/tsunami disaster and manufacturing/production levels will take some time to recover, which will further soften the demand for oil from that country.

The economies in many Western countries, including the UK, USA, and Europe, are still struggling to get out of the recession. Oil demand from these economies is therefore not expected to surge suddenly.

That only leaves us with the supply side to explain the current high price of the Brent crude oil spread betting market.

Certainly, the political unrest in countries such as Libya has taken its toll, but the fact of the matter is that Libya only produces about two per cent of the world’s oil. A country such as Saudi Arabia could easily make up for the loss of the entire Libyan production.

Uncertainty has always bedevilled world markets and it seems that in this case it is once again wreaking havoc. This, combined with the fact that a large percentage of oil demand is generated by speculators is the only way to explain the surge in oil prices.

How long this will continue is hard to say. Contrary to expectations of some Western commentators, there seems to have developed a stalemate in Libya that could last for years. The political upheaval in Syria and Yemen is also not showing any signs of abating.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Looking the chart below, much of the technical analysis shouts “Bull market!”

The current price is far above the cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and the green Chinkou Span line is also high above the price 26 periods ago. In addition, the price is also well above the blue Kijun-Sen as well as the red Tenkan-Sen.

The fact that the Tenkan-Sen (red) is also above the Kijun-Sen (blue) shows us that even in the short term the bull market is still intact. The fact that the Kijun-Sen has turned flat, however, should caution traders that a short-term correction might be under way.

The current pattern seems to be similar to what we saw between mid-February and mid-March. In that case, the price eventually broke out of the correction to reach a new high on the 8th of April.

Whether this will happen again remains to be seen. If the price breaks through the recent high of $126.88, we can be fairly certain the bull market is intact.

However, if it drops below the support provided by the blue Kijun-Sen it could indicate a major price correction, so this is a good stop-loss level. If the crude oil price were to drop as far as the cloud, then getting out very quickly could be a long trader’s best option.

Short-term financial spread betting investors should use a shorter period, e.g. the hourly graph. In this case, it is possible to make money in the current market both during short-term corrections as well as during the subsequent upswing.

In this case, one option would be to go short when the price drops below the Ichimoku cloud and go long when it moves above the cloud.


Brent Crude Oil Spread Betting Chart



Good luck and happy trading

Shai Heffetz, InterTrader

(Original article written 28 April 2011).


Spread betting carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your initial deposit, so you should ensure spread betting meets your investment objectives.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade. Neither InterTrader nor CleanFinancial.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above or for the correctness or accuracy of the information provided.

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'Crude Oil Spread Betting: Bull Market Continues but Brent Needs to Pass $126' edited by DB, updated 28-Apr-11


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