As feared in yesterdays column "At the moment every newspaper and commentator is talking about $100 but, as is often the case, when everyone is convinced of one outcome, something else happens". Oil has dropped almost 4 dollars since the penning of that statement. Punters will be looking at support in the 85.00 region (Brent December) but if the inventory numbers from the States this afternoon are benign we may well see a swift return into the low 80's. Of course with winter approaching if the numbers show a weak supply situation then the opposite may be the case.
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Crude Oil Spread Trading, 30 Oct 07
The Brent Crude spread betting market drifted slightly lower this morning as the storms in the Gulf abate slightly and the political tensions go nowhere. At the moment every newspaper and commentator is talking about $100 but, as is often the case, when everyone is convinced of one outcome, something else happens. Our clients are actually pretty flat in oil at the moment as they try to get a handle on whether we will push upwards or whether the elastic band effect will plummet us back down again. It is advisable at these levels to keep your stops in tight no matter which way you bet as the price action is very violent and will not be kind if you get it wrong.
Crude Oil Spread Trading, 29 Oct 07
Brent Crude Oil is also powering higher as dealers speculate on political risk levels. With the winter upon us any extra worries are likely to exert ever more pressure on prices. It is in Russia’s interest that tension is kept high as they make a nice little turn the higher the price goes. With the states and even Europe worried by Iranian nuclear ambitions this story could run and run. It is probable that the US administration believes they invaded the wrong country! For all of Saddam’s WMD claimed capability he was never on the nuclear ladder. Fortunately there is now no appetite for 'gun boat' diplomacy so in the words of Winston Churchill "Jaw, Jaw" rather than "War, War" is likely to be the solution this time
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Crude Oil Software' by DB, updated 26-Oct-07
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