Crude Oil Financial Spread Trading June 2008
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Quick and simple answers to the most common Brent Crude Oil / Nymex Crude Oil trading questions:
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Crude Oil Spread Trading
A regular Crude Oil spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Crude Oil spread trading update, click here.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 20 Jun 08
Oil had yet another go at the highs yesterday making it nine times in the last ten trading sessions that there has been an effort to close above $137 in the front month contract whilst at the same time there have been five failed attempts to get below $131.50. Either we will burst through to the high ground of Goldman Sach’s $150 to $200 bucks or the effort will prove too much and the longs will start to run out of patience and start to offload positions. The current crude oil spread of $133.05 - $133.10 for August Brent is pretty much middle of the road.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 19 Jun 08
Precious little reason to get involved on the buy side these days has left the FTSE 500 points off from the highs of last month. But with the foreign legions of mining and oil still propping us up to a certain extent there have been moments of light. Unfortunately for the commodities markets the rising value of the extracted material is actually starting to impact on the bottom line of the companies themselves. Wages, fuel, taxation, contract renegotiations etc. are all cutting into what should be an even greater boom time than it already is.
As the value of the wealth under the ground gets higher and higher we are seeing an increased pressure on local Governments to ‘take back’ what is ‘theirs’. Investors should always be aware that the Venezuela effect can be a very persuasive tool when used on poorly educated populations who see their extreme poverty in stark contrast to the vast wealth being extracted.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 17 Jun 08
For all the headlines this morning about record oil prices the fact is that by the close of business yesterday the price had actually fallen on the day. For those using the vagaries of the dollar as a sort of leveraged anti-hedge versus the price of oil the day must have been a tad expensive.
The dollar drifted lower all day but after Oil spiked higher on the Saudi news of increased production (presumably on the basis that the market was expecting a bit more) sellers had the upper hand for the rest of the session. The same thing can be seen this morning as, even though the dollar is weaker in early trade, oil has also slipped a touch and the Brent Crude Oil spread is now at $134.30 - $134.35.
In the last seven trading sessions August Brent has tried, and failed, to remain above $137 seven times (mind you it has also had a few unsuccessful goes at the $133 level on the down side). It is this type of price action that gives the technical traders a buzz as they look to get involved in any moves that would indicate a break out in either direction.
Each trading day is seeing highs and lows of more than a five dollar spread. This is volatility of impressive proportions and may be indicative that we have reached a temporary peak (although by the time you read this the price will probably have shot up again!).
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Crude Oil Spread Betting, 16 Jun 08
Looking at last week, the positive reports from the Saudis offering to up production and/or set up a meeting of the major players weighed on Oil prices. Coupled with a stronger dollar, Brent Crude Oil dropped $4 on the week to close at $134.25. However the oil market continued to see large fluctuations as it traded an $8 range around $130-138.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 13 Jun 08
Oil, which was looking tired yesterday morning, managed to get a second wind late on with a $5 rally after the European markets had closed. July Brent Crude Oil spread is opening at around $136 but resistance around $138 may restrict the upside in early action.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 12 Jun 08
With Crude Oil once again hitting the accelerator pedal yesterday, hopes that the two day sixteen dollar rally last Friday and Monday was the ‘blow out’ move that might define the peak seem remote. The only small comfort is that there does appear to be some resistance between $137 and $138 dollars in Brent as sellers at this level have had the upper hand for four days in a row.
Of course for those who believe in the global warming catastrophe scenario the best way for the planet to stop producing green house gases is for fossil fuels to become so expensive that everyone below a certain wealth criteria would be unable to afford them. Unfortunately this is very unlikely; as BP stated yesterday there are, on current forward consumption models, forty one years of ‘proven’ reserves. This does not include the unproven reserves which is much of OPEC and which are speculated to be far, far, greater than the proven. Nobody buys a commodity to store it for forty years. Too much of the worlds production is sold at subsidised prices and this creates an artificial scenario of huge government deficits and unrealistic consumption levels. Unfortunately the subsidised supply is to populations who have no way of affording the real market prices so the potential for real domestic upheaval in countries such as Egypt is very real.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 11 Jun 08
The Dollar move higher had its predictable effect on Gold and Crude Oil, which have been trading recently as sort of leveraged anti-Dollar hedges. Gold is, like Cable, struggling to make new highs and the bears continue to eye the huge $850 target level. Yesterday’s $26 fall was the biggest one day drop since the mid March fall out when we failed at the $1000 level and before that we have to go back to June 2006 to get a similar scale of weakness.
Crude Oil Spread Betting, 9 Jun 08
Oil hit another record. Early in the week the price of Brent slackened a little as news of Asian countries cutting back on fuel subsidies. However the Brent Crude price then did a U-turn, hitting $138.54 on Friday. The main factor was the weakening dollar, although increasingly hawkish comments from Israel about Iran will have helped push the price up.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Crude Oil Financial Spread Trading June 2008' by DB, updated 20-Jun-08
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Crude Oil market news: Oil had yet another go at the highs yesterday making it nine times in the last ten trading sessions that there has been an effort to close above $137 in the front month contract whilst at the same time there have been five failed attempts to get below...read article.
Crude Oil Financial Spread Betting June 2008, updated 06-Jun-08
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