Oil is also climbing but this is probably on the weak dollar rather than any other factor. Brent Crude is now around the $95 per barrel level and Nymex is pushing at $97 as punters are once again gunning for $100. On the other hand there is probably a huge weight of producer selling at this level as long term it would seem an unsustainable price.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 22 Nov 07
In Oil, after the early attempts to get over the $99 dollar level, dealers eventually seemed to run out of puff and we traded down to the $97 level where we remain this morning (January Nymex). Brent Crude is open today and is expected to show only sporadic interest given a complete lack of news and no impetus from it’s closed US cousin. The Crude spread is now at $95.22-95.27 up 30 cents or so.
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Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 21 Nov 07
We might be staring at a $100 a barrel but in euro terms, Crude Oil, is actually around 40% cheaper on a three year basis (still expensive but not quite so eye-watering).
Oil just had one direction yesterday, Up. The price for Jan Brent rallied some 330 cents in the trading session and eyeing the charts we can see that there was very little evidence of any selling pressure at all with only small pull backs during the day and these only after sharp shifts higher. This shows evidence of a sort of rolling rout of short sellers as bulls ground the price unerringly higher through stops and we are now at all time highs of $95.65 - 95.70 for Brent and $98.36 - $98.42 for Nymex. Just a short push from $100. We can expect the next dollar fifty to be quite a battle as producers, unable to believe their luck, lock in guaranteed super-profits but with winter round the corner and OPEC not increasing production (or only marginally doing so). I’d expect OPEC to keep some production back in anticipation of a fierce shift higher if we go above the hundred buck mark.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 19 Nov 07
No comment from Capital Spreads on Oil today. Although paddypowertrader did comment that Brent Crude dropped $2 over the last week to $91.6 per barrel following a surprise rise in weekly inventories.
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Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 16 Nov 07
Oil has had a relatively quiet week by all standards and with an overall decline since Monday, clients have seen this as a buying opportunity in the hope that the elusive £100 a barrel mark will be hit shortly.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 15 Nov 07
Oil repaid my rather worried comments of yesterday by rallying 250 pips! After Tuesdays dovish comments from OPEC out came the velvet coated Iron Fist yesterday with comments indicating that there will be no increase in production and a combative statement pushing some of the oil problems onto the heads of the US (not all that unreasonable). Today the Crude Oil market price has dipped half a buck to $90.66-90.71 (December Brent). Traders will be eyeing $90.30 support for signs of strength but, like Gold, the markets are reasonably quiet.
Crude Oil Spread Betting Comment, 14 Nov 07
Brent December Crude Oil has now dropped 6 dollars from the highs of last week. The Nymex December market has dropped $7. The effect of OPEC dovishness has started to have an effect. Whilst some continue to harp on about the economic growth of the emerging nations as a catalyst for higher prices this is in reality a story for the future not for the current environment. The US also appears to be being more cautious in its pronouncements over Iran which may reduce the political risk. The current price is 91.55-91.60 as we bounce a bit from yesterdays $3 fall and the probability is that the recent drop is just a correction but the elusive $100 barrel is still…elusive…Traders will be worrying that there is a long way to fall if the market turns. In can imagine that there is a good deal of $75 a barrel 'put' buying going on at the moment.
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Crude Oil Spread Trading, 12 Nov 07
The Gold market opened $14 lower this morning at 818.0-818.5. Punters will be hoping that the spike of the last two and a half months is not a repeat of early 2006 move which swiftly resulted in a $170 fall down to $550. A similar drop would have us down to 670 or there abouts. That would not actually break the long term positive trend line (such has been the speed of the rally) so those who go on about the long term direction of the gold market may be warned that the potential for seemingly massive falls whilst still remaining long term positive is very much alive. In reality the market does need a bit of a pull back if only to get rid of some of the short term speculative longs who are trying to get on the move. After the initial drop we are seeing strong buying from punters who see this as the fall out that they need to get long. This is likely to be the same across Europe with smaller traders getting in on any drop so our clients should be wary of the possibility of a renewed bull hunt later on this morning as the bigger traders come in and try to force us lower once more.
'Crude Oil Broker' by DB, updated 23-Nov-07
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