Markets continue to look buoyant in the UK as the effects of Oil and Mining bolster their respective sectors.
Gold moved up to the resistance level mentioned in yesterdays’ comment at $882 and we are opening at that level this morning. With the dollar weakening badly against both the Yen and Euro in yesterday’s sessions the rally was not unexpected. But we are still struggling to make new highs on the current ‘wave’ and there are significant resistances at the falling trend line (currently at $895) and, of course, at $900 (just because it is a big number).
All the news on oil is bad and getting worse so the price just continues higher. Short term impacts are all bearish on supply and therefore bullish on price. At some point the pendulum will swing the other way but probably not today. New supply takes years not days. Whilst virtually all reserves are economically extractable at the current price not many producers will risk the vast costs involved on a short term price surge.
Commodities Spread Betting, 8 May 08
Gold continues to struggle and the major support between $845 and $850 may exert a fierce pull for dealers looking for weak long positions to attack. This morning the gold spread betting market is at $866.0 - $866.5 having failed to break back above the $882 resistance earlier this week.
Crude Oil...err...is opening at the highs today...but who knows?
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Commodities Spread Betting, 7 May 08
Crude Oil will do whatever...it is up 50 cents already this morning...
For a new Feature on Oil and the possible $200 mark read: Spread Betting on Crude Oil Prices and UBS.
Gold and precious metals will attempt to hang on to the current levels. As I have commented many times over the past couple of months (sorry!) Gold is not the ‘new paradigm’. It is just another investment tool. If it gets too cheap it will rally if it gets too expensive it will fall. All the talk of $1,500 and $2,000 may well be correct in the long term but at the moment the trend is getting bearish. Each fall is hitting new lows and each rally failing to attain the previous rally’s highs. This is classic bear market material. There is a good chance of a move back up to the $902 resistance level but if the major $845 to $850 support is attacked then unfortunately for all those Gold bulls the probability then swings towards a return to the high $600’s which dominated the price action of early 2007.
Commodities Spread Betting, 6 May 08
Markets today are likely to be on the up, initially, as crude oil and gold continue to bolster the Mining and Oil sector and, rather more cruelly, continue to squeeze those who have shorted the market. As mentioned last week the contraction of the FTSE over the previous weeks trading was a sure sign of a break out coming. That the break out was, on a probability basis, more likely to be to the upside than down. Clients continued to sell any price above 6100 and were unfortunately caught out by the sharp shift on Friday as the pre-bank holiday activity saw traders tighten the screw on anyone trying to set up shorts.
Commodities Spread Betting, 5 May 08
Crude Oil touched a new high last Monday as worries over disruption to supplies continued. But the stronger Dollar hit commodity prices, sending Brent Crude Oil a couple of Dollars lower on the week, at $114.56. Gold fell to a 4-month low and is now struggling to hold support at $850.
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Commodities Spread Betting, 2 May 08
The mining sector could also provide support this morning with it benefiting from an upgrade by Goldman Sachs. However, after the initial positive start this morning, markets are expected to remain quiet ahead of the very important non-farm payroll figures due out from the US at 13h30 London time. 80,000 jobs are expected to have been lost in April, the same as in March and bulls will be hoping for a better figure than this. In the past, a better than expected result has often led to equity prices falling as investors worried that the economy was strong enough to warrant increases in interest rates. However this time round it’s slightly different as rises in interest rates are highly unlikely any time soon. Anything nearer the 0 mark for today’s non-farm payroll figure could cause a frenzy of buying in a US equity market that currently seems to be defying gravity. However, there is still risk to the US labour market with job losses over the past month having come from a range of industries including business, retail and in particular finance.
Gold prices have really experienced a serious correction from the dizzy highs of $1,000. It just goes to show how sometimes irrational exuberance and speculation can drive prices to unrealistic levels before falling back sharply, usually at the cost of the retail investor who’s just jumped on board at the wrong time. That said, many of the Capital Spread Account holders enjoyed a large chunk of gold’s move up to $1,000 when the trend seemed a one way ticket and are acting a little more cautiously now with prices hitting a 4 month low around the $850 mark.
Commodities Spread Betting, 1 May 08
Crude Oil followed through the fall from $120 with another drop yesterday taking us to just above the $113 mark. However the open this morning is taking much of this back and the Nymex June contract is opening $1.20 higher with the Nymex spread at $114.55 - $114.61. US inventories showed a solid increase which helped the drop but actual fundamentals appear to mean very little at the moment in the scramble to secure future energy supplies.
Commodities Spread Betting, 30 Apr 08
Gold is attempting to bounce off the $871 support that it hit back on the 1 April. However as I have mentioned many times in these comments in the absence of seriously bad news the arguments for holding the yellow metal start to deteriorate. With the dollar trying to recover some ground at the moment the metal is suffering.
Mining stocks may be weaker on the off with BHP and Rio trading some 3% down in Australian markets. Oil is now all the way down at ‘just’ $113 for the June Brent Crude contract, some $4 from the highs, but I do not get the impression that this is a concerted sell off just yet. It is more probably along the lines of a pause for breath. If the weakness continues over a couple of days then we may find that the sentiment turns sharply but until this happens I am afraid that peak oil looks here to stay.
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Commodities Spread Betting, 29 Apr 08
The markets today look to be going over the same ground as yesterday with the pound dropping back to yesterday mornings level around £1.9800 and Gold and Oil reversing some of the recent gains.
Commodities Spread Betting, 28 Apr 08
With the Grangemouth problem reaching its zenith the price of Brent Crude Oil has spiked to $117.50 but this may be an example of ‘buy the rumour’-‘sell the fact’. Many factors are driving the price of oil higher but many of them are temporary, there is a good chance that there will be a spike move higher to take out weak shorts in the near future but that this may well indicate the highs.
Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Commodities Trading May 2008' by DB, updated 09-May-08
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