Spread Betting Account holders rode the rally well yesterday with many more longs than shorts making for a nice little turn for many clients. Added to this the selling at $1.60 in the EUR / USD and the heavy shorting of Crude Oil before the inventories number yesterday and it all adds up to one of the best days this year for the majority.
Oil slumped five dollars in five minutes yesterday afternoon as the US revealed an unexpected jump in reserves. The only thing really holding crude at these levels is fear of the future. If the US, Israel and Iran can come to some sort of accommodation, Nigeria starts to sort out its internal woes, Iraq begins to get back to pre war production and Russia sorts out its infrastructure problems (all long term I know) then Oil could well be substantially below current price levels by Mid 2009. Unfortunately, as with all comments along this line, there is many a slip betwixt cup and lip. The real disaster scenarios all start with some sort of military action against Iran.
Commodities Spread Betting, 16 Jul 08
Punters watched in surprise as the USD forex gyrations finally impacted on the crude oil price as even a small retracement in the dollar weakness caused a massive capitulation in oil longs. In one hour the price fell over $10 before finally finding support at $136 (Sept Brent). Only another six days like that and we will be back at $80.
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Commodities Spread Betting, 15 Jul 08
Oil appears to be stabilising around the $145 level (September Brent) with yesterday’s three dollar trading range eventually adding up to no change. With the economies of Europe now slipping into negative growth there must come a time when the consumption of fuel (especially at these prices) mitigates the current supply constraints. The Iranian factor is effectively holding the price well above supply/demand valuations as dealers try to factor in the effect of a strike on any Nuclear installations but, in the long run, this fear will eventually either dissipate or materialise. Even a materialisation might only have a temporary (albeit violent) impact on Crude Oil prices as Iran can hardly afford to stop shipping its only export.
Commodities Spread Betting, 14 Jul 08
Gold closed last week up $31.30 at $963.80 (up 3.36%)
Brent Crude Oil (August) closed last week up $0.07 at $144.49 (up 0.05%)
WTI / US Oil (August) closed last week up $1.11 at $145.08 (up 0.77%)
Commodities Spread Betting, 11 Jul 08
A quick look at the Financial Spreads Crude Oil chart shows Brent Crude September up $7-8 since yesterdays close.
With the markets look ever more tetchy the FinancialSpreads.com chart shows the flight to "safety" over the last couple of days.
Commodities Spread Betting, 9 Jul 08
Commodities suffered a big decline yesterday with oil tumbling through the $140 a barrel mark. The question is will this just present another buying opportunity for bulls and this morning an Iranian missile test has caused prices to jump $1, but still below the $140 level. US crude oil inventory data out today will no doubt lead to further volatility.
Commodities Spread Betting, 8 Jul 08
Oil has fallen to err...$142.33 a full $4 from the highs but hardly a drop in the bucket compared to the overall move higher. Having broken into the $140 region the price does not seem to want to go back down again. $140 appears to be something of a support level so dealers will be buyers so long as it remains north of this.
Commodities Spread Betting, 7 Jul 08
Last week’s Commodities: The 'safe-haven' of Gold saw a lot of buyers trying to break through the resistance at $950 before the market returned to $932.50, still $7 up on last week.
Middle-East tension pushed crude to another record high. US Inventories gave it a further push to a new high of $146.69. Dollar strength on Thursday settled the market down. Brent Crude Oil closed $4 higher on the week at $144.42.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Commodities Spread Betting July 2008' by DB, updated 18-Jul-08
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