Commodities Spread Bets April 2008
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A regular Commodities spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Commodities spread trading update, click here.
Commodities Spread Betting, 11 Apr 08
Gold is surprisingly a little lower at $924 and remains content to hold above the $900 mark. Support seems to be building up again after its sharp decline from $1,000 and the market is taking in its stride that the IMF plans to sell a large chunk of its gold holding.
Commodities Spread Betting, 10 Apr 08
My hope that the big commodity bull run might be easing has been dealt a cruel blow by the rise and rise the crude oil.
Whilst precious metals are still well off their highs, energy and base metals are pushing the envelope again. And whilst we may be complaining about the cost in the UK, pity the weaker nations who do not have the fat to absorb the latest price hikes. Riots in Egypt could be only the start. Government subsidised staple products can swiftly bankrupt a nation but rulers in many parts of the globe are fearful of removing these props for risk of massive social upheaval.
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Commodities Spread Betting, 9 Apr 08
The price of Gold is now lower and around the $905 an ounce mark. The Gold spread betting market has seeing big intraday swings in the last few days. Again though, it looks like the Capital Spread Account holders still want to be long of gold. They’re buying on any weakness with the longer term view that we'll see prices test the highs above $1,000 that were set last month. The bulls reasoning for this is that the US's economic problems will heavily support gold prices, but anyone who reads this column regularly knows that I am one of the gold cynics!
Commodities Spread Betting, 8 Apr 08
The price of Gold is unchanged this morning around the $922 mark.
The Crude Oil market is flat after a quiet session in Asia overnight.
Rather surprisingly the IMF have let the market know that they are considering selling some of their gold bullion and who would blame them at these prices! The market has reacted little to the news as it requires board approval and there are still so many willing buyers.
Commodities Spread Betting, 7 Apr 08
Commodities prices (especially softs) are still very much on the up and up and the effect of higher food prices in the poorer parts of the globe cannot be over estimated. We can expect rising costs in much of what we consider to be the cheap manufacturing areas of the Indian Sub continent and the Far East as workers look to increase their wages to counteract their reduction in spending power.
Gold has managed to recover the bull run momentum over the past few days with the medium term up-trend having been regained. Dealers will be hoping that this is not a dead cat bounce in a falling market but the prospects are reasonably good that the fall to $870 has shaken out the weak longs.
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Commodities Spread Betting, 4 Apr 08
Commodities rushed around but in the end closed pretty much unchanged as traders try to estimate whether we are up here for the long haul or whether the great bull move of 2007/2008 has run its course.
Commodities Spread Betting, 3 Apr 08
Gold managed to climb back up to the medium term trend line at $904 which it broke through on Tuesday but it is now backtracking away from here. The gold spread is currently at $898.0 - $898.5 just below the psychological $900 level. Clients are buying once more on the move but are very twitchy to any quick reversals.
Commodities Spread Betting, 2 Apr 08
As feared Gold continues to weaken as other investment sectors have their day in the sun and the dollar puts on a bit of a bounce. The yellow metal is now below $900 for the first time since mid Feb and we have seen a 15% fall from the traded highs.
Silver continues to suffer and at one point yesterday it was down almost 25% down.
If the dollar continues to strengthen and the equity markets settle into a better trading sentiment the rush into precious metal protection may very well turn into a stampede to get out. It this point there will be a great number of hurting long positions being nursed by anxious traders. There is expected to be support at the current levels around $875 and below here at $850 but if these are breached then bears will be eying below $800 and further.
Commodities Spread Betting, 1 Apr 08
Gold begins the day at $916 but buyers are getting stretched at theses prices and there may be an early attempt to the downside to squeeze them out. Support in the yellow metal is at the bottom of the fall out last week at $903 and this also (now) equates to the trend line support of the big bull move from $650 started back in August. A close below here could not be described as anything other than negative.
Crude Oil had a pretty solid down day falling $3.50s and this was after rallying over a dollar and half at the start of trading and gave a total range of six bucks. Over the past two weeks there have been three big falls of this nature and whilst the ensuing bounces have push us up to almost the same highs as before the important word here is ‘almost’. Each rally peaks at a lower point and this is often seen as a classic sign of a tired bull run.
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Commodities Spread Betting, 31 Mar 08
As the equity markets slump thus the demand for Gold increases once more. The yellow metal is now some 10 bucks higher this morning but the buying seems to be coming from Europe for once rather than the Far East and the US. We are still some way off the levels of last week, which tended to oscillate around 950 level, but with the gold spread at $938.0 - $938.5 the recovery from Fridays weakness is underway.
'Commodities Spread Bets April 2008' by DB, updated 11-Apr-08
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