So far gold is trading lower as investors are reluctant to stick their necks out ahead of today's data. Dips continue to attract clients into further long positions. Gold has been remarkably volatile and while there's been a halt the ever increasing price a support areas seem to be in place around $790.
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Commodities Spread Trading, 6 Dec 07
The double top formed by crude oil in November still has the bears firmly in control again this morning. There's so much of the black stuff above ground that the $100 mark could remain a dream for clients for quite some time to come as they continue to buy on dips.
Commodities Spread Trading, 5 Dec 07
Gold bounced back above $800 and our clients are quite happy. As mentioned yesterday Capital Spreads clients were buying heavily. Their confidence was borne out by the return above the bull trend line at $795 mentioned yesterday. Which then turned into a support level for the rest of the trading session.
Crude Oil had a quiet day (!) on the news that the CIA regards the Iranian nuclear threat as minimal therefore removing any real chance of a US strike. The lack of action is odd as you would have expected weakness in the market.
Commodities Spread Trading, 4 Dec 07
OPEC, having stated last week that they would be looking to ease supply worries, announced that they saw no problems with the current levels. Frankly, nor would I find any problem with current supply levels if I was selling a product at $90 a barrel which cost me only a few bucks to extract. The impact of this comment on oil was to retrace much of Fridays fall. This morning the market is opening just above $90 for the January Brent, up another 40c overnight.
Gold rallied a few bucks yesterday but could not manage to break back above the medium term bullish trend line which was broken on Friday. Resistance today is at $795.5 but our clients are still buying strongly on any weakness. The mid $770's seem to have very strong support but we expect that, unless the dollar moves dramatically, today’s trading will be between these levels.
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Commodities Spread Trading, 3 Dec 07
Gold is bouncing from Fridays sell off as the dollar weakens. However, as mentioned on Friday, the support at $791 defined the days trading and is now likely to act as resistance. If we fail to close above this mark we may have some tough times ahead. Support is at Fridays lows down at $780.0 and more importantly at $774.0. Having said that, it looks like Financial Spreads punters are still confident and are buying into the weakness.
Commodities Spread Trading, 30 Nov 07
Gold slipped below $800 once more as we show further evidence that buyers above this level are getting just a little cautious. Punters remain very long with us but with the failure to make a new high a few days ago and the swift sell off since will be worrying bulls. A close below $792 will break the short/medium term bull trend and may bring more sellers out of the wood work. With the gold spread currently at $794.3-$794.8 we are not far away.
Brent Crude Oil seems to be having a merry old battle around the $90-$92 level as we oscillate about driven by supply and fear. There appears to be enough of the black stuff about but this is not causing the price to fall as traders and end users strive to ensure supply over the winter and spring. We have definitely broken the upward momentum trend but it remains to be seen whether this will turned into an outright bear move or whether we will drift sideways until a new momentum is achieved. The January Brent spread is $90.28-$90.33, up about 20 cents overnight. Traders will be watching for the lows of two days ago at $89.50 to be attacked or for a retracement up to yesterdays opening highs above $92.00. It is very difficult to form an opinion in the current environment (other than tossing a coin).
Commodities Spread Trading, 29 Nov 07
Oil is $2.5 higher this morning after it's big drop yesterday, shaking out some of the bulls. Some technical analysts are suggesting a double top has formed, which is usually a bearish signal, as well as the elusive $100 mark offering quite a degree of resistance. However, that may not be the case today.
Commodities Spread Trading, 28 Nov 07
With the Dollar moving higher, oh what a surprise, down comes Gold. This time punters have been caught out as the temptation to buy on any slip has been too much for many. We saw heavy bet buying yesterday morning at between $816 and $822 after the quick fall from the $837 level. As mentioned in yesterdays comment the technical analysts would have been looking at the candlestick formation as a possible sell indication and on this occasion the premise has panned out. The gold spread is now $794.2 - $794.7 down some 20 bucks. A close below $780 would put the cat amongst the pigeons as it might indicate a double top. But there is a good chance of a bounce from the support level at $789.0
Crude Oil, as with Gold, has hit a sudden reverse with OPEC announcing a higher production level to help ease emerging market requirements. At the moment the 100 buck level is still elusive but the pull back is still not terminal as both Brent and Nymex are still in the 90's. Brent is bouncing from overnight lows and is now up just a tad at $92.71 - $92.76 and our clients will be hoping for a good move higher as buyers were being severely damaged in yesterday's move.
Commodities Spread Trading, 27 Nov 07
Crude Oil slipped yesterday and is still below $100 as the fabled land remains just out of reach. Producer selling is likely to be quite heavy at this level especially as OPEC is rumoured to be increasing production. However with so much pressure on the up side it is difficult to bet against a spike up to the mark at some time. We would all feel very let down if the Oil price now drifted back into the $70's or $60's without just one print at the triple digit!
Gold had an odd trading day yesterday rallying up to $837 before coming back down to close almost unchanged which is where we open today. The charts are now showing three spike failures to the upside which will be giving some worries to punters and the formation on the candlesticks (as mentioned a couple of weeks ago) may bring the technical sellers out to play. That said, any sell off will be fighting against the continued bull run and it would take quite a change in perception for the bears to gain control.
Commodities Spread Trading, 26 Nov 07
It's not just the equities market that’s found buyers this morning, Gold is up $25, (up 3%) following on from a big rally in the Asian session.
Gold's rally overnight has been fuelled by the speculators trying to tip Crude Oil over $100 a barrel as the dollar continues to remain out of favour. With just over a dollar to go for oil to hit the elusive $100 dollar mark, few are betting against it doing so in the short term.
'Commodities Futures Trading' by DB, updated 07-Dec-07
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