In the commodities markets the story is once more all about energy with Heating Oil, Gas and Crude all shooting higher in yesterday’s session. Traders will be nervous (understandably) after the dramatic failure of the attempt to move lower and we are now back in the $126 to $129 trading range of last week. There appeared to be little reason for the shift higher. The probability is that it was more to do with weak short positions being squeezed throughout the trading session.
Commodities Spread Betting, 5 Jun 08
Oil broke below the $126 support level I mentioned a few days ago and has fulfilled the prediction made at the time of following through on any break. This morning we are way down with the Brent Crude Oil spread (July) at ‘only’ $121.70 - $121.75.
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Commodities Spread Betting, 4 Jun 08
Gold is struggling every time a new bull phase is attempted and the last two moves higher have failed to break above previous highs. The gold spread is now at $878.5 - $879.0 and, chartwise, is looking fragile for a move below $877. There is support at $863 and $850 but if these are breached on a close this may open the market for a move below the $800 level.
Commodities Spread Betting, 3 Jun 08
Crude Oil is looking to being stuck between $126 and $129 (roughly) with the futures trading between these levels at least once or twice a day. Markets tightened up yesterday closing at the opening price and this is often a signal of a break out in one direction or the other. The best advice is to steer clear of the market but if you must trade either use the ranges mentioned earlier with stops on a trade below $125.50 and above $129.50 or wait for a closing breakout and then trade in the direction indicated.
Commodities Spread Betting, 2 Jun 08
Watch out for the US oil inventories at 15.30 on Wednesday. They will be widely watched and we can expect extreme volatility in their aftermath.
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Commodities Spread Betting, 30 May 08
Crude Oil did the almost exact opposite of Wednesday moving sharply higher on the Inventories numbers showing an almost 9m barrel drop in storage before late news on consumption numbers helped it to fall quickly back down. We bounced off the $126 level yet again, as we had on numerous occasions on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the sentiment by the close was still on the weak side with Brent July finally expiring at $126.80 having traded a $6 range during the day.
Having tempted the eternal Gold bulls into buying on its recent rally up to $935 bucks the commodity fell out of favour big time and finished the day down at $878. All eyes will be on the major long term trend line support at $866 which will tempt further buying if it looks like holding. On a break the chartists will be going for prices a good deal lower than these with $780 and $675 being mooted.
Commodities Spread Betting, 29 May 08
Crude Oil had a whole series of attempts at breaking below £126 but was already bouncing before the weak inventory numbers helped it out. The price went from $3 down to $2.5 up at the close which just about sums up the volatility in this market at the moment.
Commodities Spread Betting, 28 May 08
Quite an interesting day yesterday on the markets with Crude Oil slumping to...errr...just $128, Gold dropping $20 creating, one might have hoped, an opportunity for a small rally elsewhere. Unfortunately nobody was buying this small piece of good news and the world’s indices and currencies did, well in the end, pretty much nothing at all.
Commodities Spread Betting, 27 May 08
On Wednesday British Energy report full year earnings but these will be submerged under analysts clamouring for some news on whether the takeover speculation has any legs. Another stock up big time on the year (34%) and the way of the commodity markets are these days you would not bet against another 34% for the rest of the year.
Antofagasta will release first quarter numbers and analysts will be waiting to see whether the soaring copper prices have had the desired effect. Unfortunately for the company costs seem to be rising faster than the price of their principal product (difficult to understand I know) so investors will be hoping for some topping out on the expenditure side.
Commodities Spread Betting, 26 May 08
Looking at last week: On Monday OPEC said that there were sufficient supplies of Crude Oil and that an increase in production was unlikely which pushed crude oil a record high of $135.09 on Thursday. Brent Crude ended the week $6 higher at $131.57.
Over the course of last week the price of Gold rose $22 to $926.65.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Commodities Financial Spread Betting June 2008' by DB, updated 06-Jun-08
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