Banking Stocks and Market Review
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Trading Features / Strategies from Simon Denham of Capital Spreads.
M&S is obviously the name on everyone’s lips this morning with the company returning to plus £1bn profit before tax for the first time in...oooohhh a decade or more. The dividend is increased once again and all is rosy (sic) in the garden. Except, of course, it isn’t. Just as the numbers start to move in the desired direction the company runs slap bang into a probable Siberian winter on the high street. The numbers this time though are (no getting around it) better than expected and the trading statement was not as dire as might have been forecast so the M&S stock will no doubt open 10 to 15p to the good.
For all the talk of grim times and belt tightening the British consumer has continued running up credit card debt, blithely believing that ‘something will turn up’. It is most likely to be a crackdown by banks on credit card debt transfers and harder initial requirements for new cards in the first place that will be the “air raid siren” signaling the end of the decade long dash for debt. Employment numbers seem to be defying gravity at the moment with headline grabbing redundancies across the country not yet showing up in the numbers but, sad to say, it cannot be long before even this number starts to turn north. Whilst we have been crying doom and destruction for eight months now, for the average ‘man on the street’ the only impact so far has been a steady increase in the cost of some essential items. But over all he still has his job and the block next door still has his, so what’s all the wailing about?
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British Land came in with its expected loss (slightly better than analysts forecast actually) but entirely due to some very bold slashing of asset valuations, knocking net asset value down by 20%. The shares are trading around 795p. Unfortunately this rather highlights the impact of the credit crunch on the company’s fortunes. It would indicate that the company, before any recession had actually started, was operating at flat. The debt levels on the book will probably have to be addressed if the BOE cannot see its way to cutting rates.
Banking stocks are becoming very worrying indeed. Since B&B announced their £300m call and Barclays stated a kind of ‘we will wait and see’ banking stocks have been virtually in freefall. Most, apart from HSBC, are now at, or below, the levels seen during the infamous HBOS incident and it is difficult to see who is selling. It is easy to be a prophet of doom but, generally, if something is happening that we cannot fathom it is because there is some news out there that only the ‘big’ boys are aware of. It is all very well to keep issuing stock for cash but if the overall Bank values keep falling this will affect the Basle weightings and continue to constrict the credit markets. There is a limit as to how many times over asset value a bank can lend.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither Capital Spreads nor Clean Financial accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Risk Warning: Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
Article provided / approved by Capital Spreads which is a trading name of London Capital Group Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), FSA Register number 182110.
'Banking Stocks and Market Review' edited by SD, updated 20-May-08
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